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稀土产业链月度追踪:8月供需改善预期加强稀土震荡偏强,节后利好落地将延续偏强走势
Huafu Securities·2024-09-26 05:08

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the rare earth sector, indicating a "buy" opportunity for specific companies such as China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and Jien Mining [3][90]. Core Insights - The report highlights an expected improvement in supply and demand dynamics for rare earth elements, with prices showing a tendency to remain strong despite potential short-term fluctuations [3][90]. - The report notes that the rare earth sector is currently at a low point, presenting opportunities for left-side positioning as the market is expected to stabilize and strengthen [3][90]. Summary by Sections Rare Earth Mining Tracking - In August, the import of rare earth minerals from Myanmar decreased by 4% month-on-month and 46% year-on-year, totaling 1,972 tons REO. Cumulatively, from January to August, imports from Myanmar reached 26,500 tons, down 14% year-on-year [2][17]. - The import of rare earth minerals from the United States increased by 99% month-on-month and 7% year-on-year, totaling 3,775 tons in August [2][17]. - The production of praseodymium-neodymium oxide in August was 8,230 tons, up 3% month-on-month and 25% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in production levels [2][32]. Smelting and Separation Tracking - The report indicates a high operating rate for separation enterprises in August, with a significant recovery in orders [3][32]. - The production of praseodymium-neodymium metal in August was 6,895 tons, reflecting a 2% increase month-on-month and a 37% increase year-on-year [3][40]. Demand Tracking - The production of neodymium-iron-boron magnets in August reached 27,940 tons, up 39.8% month-on-month and 41.6% year-on-year, driven by increased orders as the peak season approaches [3][51]. - The report notes strong demand in the new energy vehicle and home appliance sectors, with industrial motor demand also showing signs of recovery [3][59]. Supply-Demand Balance and Pricing - The report indicates a reduction in the surplus of light rare earths, with a surplus of 263 tons in August, down from a cumulative surplus of 1,800 tons from January to August [3][81]. - Rare earth prices continued to recover in August, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide priced at 409,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 9.4% increase from the previous month [3][86].