铁路装备深度报告：政策支持叠加后市场放量，铁路装备高景气可持续

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the railway equipment industry as of September 23, 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The railway equipment industry is expected to maintain high levels of investment, with a projected average annual investment exceeding 800 billion yuan from 2024 to 2025, and sustained high investment levels through 2026-2027 [2]. - There is a significant increase in passenger and freight volumes, with national railway passenger and freight volumes growing by 14.9% and 2.6% year-on-year respectively in August 2024 [2]. - The profitability of the national railway group has improved, with a net profit of 1.7 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [2]. - Policy support is accelerating the growth of the railway equipment aftermarket, with a focus on phasing out old diesel locomotives by 2027 and a substantial increase in maintenance orders for high-speed trains [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The railway industry is divided into two main systems: railway and urban rail, with clear long-term development goals and significant growth potential [9][16]. Investment Trends - Railway fixed asset investment reached 477.5 billion yuan in August 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, marking the highest absolute investment amount for the same period since 2014 [2][18]. - The national railway group plans to maintain an average annual investment of over 800 billion yuan from 2024 to 2025, with expectations for continued high investment levels through 2026-2030 [2][18]. Demand Dynamics - The demand for railway equipment is driven by a substantial increase in passenger and freight volumes, with the national railway group achieving a total operating revenue of 579.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [2][18]. - The shift in procurement dynamics is moving from new line construction to addressing capacity shortages in passenger and freight transport [2]. Policy Impact - Central government policies are promoting a new round of equipment upgrades, with a focus on the replacement of aging diesel locomotives and an increase in maintenance orders for high-speed trains [2][16]. Key Companies - The report highlights key companies in the railway equipment sector, including CRRC Corporation Limited (601766.SH), China Railway Signal & Communication Corp (688009.SH), and Times Electric (688187.SH), all rated as "Buy" [3][4].