光伏中报总结及展望：四季轮回是常态，百花盛开各有时

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the solar power equipment industry [2] Core Insights - The solar power sector has shown consistent growth in installed capacity, with a significant increase in both domestic and international demand for solar components despite price declines [4][5][37] - The industry is currently experiencing a bottoming out in price-to-book (PB) ratios, indicating a high safety margin for investments [7] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic and International Demand Review and Outlook - In the first seven months of 2024, China's newly installed solar capacity reached 123.53 GW, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, with July alone contributing 21.05 GW, up 12.3% [11][14] - The cumulative installed capacity of solar power in China reached 735.57 GW by July 2024, accounting for 23.7% of the total installed capacity, up from 20.88% at the end of 2023 [15][19] 2. Supply Side: Capacity Growth and Profit Decline - The production capacity across the solar supply chain continues to grow, with polysilicon production at approximately 1.06 million tons (up 60.6%), wafer production at 402 GW (up 58.9%), cell production at 310 GW (up 37.8%), and module production at 271 GW (up 32.2%) [6][57] - Prices across the supply chain have been declining, with significant drops in polysilicon and module prices observed [6][7] 3. Valuation: PB at the Bottom, High Safety Margin - As of September 19, 2024, the Wind solar index has retraced by 64.21%, with a current PB of 1.59, placing it in the bottom range historically [7] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with relatively high earnings certainty, such as Sunshine Power, Deye Technology, Foster, and Flat Glass [7] - It also highlights inverter manufacturers like Jinlang Technology and GoodWe, as well as leading firms expected to gradually recover profitability, including LONGi Green Energy and Trina Solar [7]