Industry Overview - The AR industry is entering a high-speed development phase, driven by AI deployment and advancements in optical display, computing, and sensing technologies [4] - Global AR hardware shipments are expected to grow from 860,000 units in 2024 to 6.41 million units in 2027, with a CAGR of 95.3% [4] - The AR hardware market size is projected to increase from 11.8 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 13.4% [4] - AR devices are expected to initially serve as smartphone companions, with display and transmission performance being key focus areas [4] AI and AR Integration - AI-powered AR terminals enhance user experience through improved object recognition, personalized interactions, real-time spatial mapping, and optimized performance [4] - Meta, Google, and domestic AR manufacturers like Rayneo are actively deploying AI features such as voice assistants and translation support [4] - AI models are expected to significantly improve the AR content ecosystem, addressing long-standing consumer complaints [4] Optical and Display Technologies - Optical display, computing, and sensing units account for 43%, 31%, and 9% of AR device BOM costs, respectively [14] - Waveguide technology, particularly diffraction waveguides, is expected to become the mainstream optical solution due to its lightweight and high transparency [22] - MicroLED is emerging as the next-generation AR display technology, with its high brightness, contrast, and low power consumption [39] - The MicroLED market in AR is forecasted to grow from 1.1 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 120% [39] Key Companies and Market Leaders - Meta dominates the global XR market with over 50% share, while domestic leaders like XREAL, Rayneo, and Rokid lead the Chinese AR market [11] - Companies such as Lumus, Crystal Optech, and Lochn Optics are advancing waveguide technology, with some achieving mass production [31] - Domestic AR manufacturers are rapidly deploying AI functions and building AR ecosystems, with products like Rayneo X2 Lite and INMO Go incorporating AI features [18][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in AR supply chain companies such as Goertek, Crystal Optech, Longcheer Technology, and BES [55] - Goertek is expected to benefit from the growth of AR products and AI-driven demand for acoustic components, with a 2025 PE of 25x [56] - Crystal Optech is valued at a 2024 PE of 35x due to its comprehensive optical solutions for AR/VR/MR devices [56] - Longcheer Technology is recommended with a 2024 PE of 33x, driven by its AIOT business and new product development [56] - BES is valued at a 2024 PE of 70x, reflecting its leadership in digital SoC and growth in AR glasses and other markets [56]
消费电子：AI加AR，重构智能可穿戴
国泰君安·2024-09-26 06:38