【粤开宏观】特别的会议与积极的信号：正视困难、坚定信心

Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting was held earlier than usual, indicating heightened attention to the current economic situation and macro policies[2] - The meeting acknowledged the overall stability of the economy but highlighted new challenges, emphasizing the need to face difficulties and boost confidence[9] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy aims to ensure necessary spending, with a focus on the "three guarantees" (employment, basic living needs, and market entities), and accelerate the use of special bonds[10] - The total fiscal scale for the year is projected to reach approximately CNY 9.78 trillion, close to CNY 10 trillion, but fiscal revenue growth has been weaker than expected, with a 2.6% decline in general public budget revenue from January to August[11] Monetary Policy - The meeting proposed significant interest rate cuts, including a potential 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which could provide around CNY 1 trillion in long-term liquidity[13] - The policy interest rate is expected to be lowered by 0.2%, impacting the entire interest rate system, with the MLF rate already reduced from 2.30% to 2%[13] Real Estate Policy - Emphasis on stabilizing housing prices, ensuring supply, and promoting demand, with new measures to control supply and improve quality in the real estate market[14] - The meeting introduced new terms such as "promoting the stabilization of the real estate market" and adjustments to housing purchase restrictions[14] Support for Enterprises - The government aims to assist enterprises in overcoming difficulties by standardizing regulatory practices and promoting the development of the private economy[15] - A proposed law to support the private economy is expected to create a better environment for non-public ownership[15] Employment and Social Welfare - The focus is on safeguarding the bottom line of people's livelihoods, particularly for vulnerable groups such as recent graduates and low-income families, with plans for direct financial assistance[16] - The government has initiated measures to provide one-time living subsidies to disadvantaged groups, ensuring timely support[17]