关税加征,家电产能如何布局?|国君研深1°

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the home appliance industry due to potential tariff increases and ongoing trade tensions, suggesting a need for companies to adapt their global supply chains [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that tariffs may continue to be imposed, leading to a trend of capacity relocation among home appliance manufacturers [2][3]. - It emphasizes that the higher the dependency of a product category on Chinese imports, the later it is likely to face tariff increases, with some categories potentially being exempted [1][2]. - The ongoing trade war has accelerated the global expansion of Chinese home appliance companies, pushing them to establish production capabilities overseas [3]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact on Capacity Layout - Tariffs are expected to influence the global supply chain of home appliance companies, with a clear trend of capacity moving out of China [2]. - Categories with lower dependency on Chinese imports, such as dryers and filters, have already faced significant tariffs, while those with higher dependency, like air conditioners and refrigerators, may see different treatment [1][2]. Trends in Overseas Layout - The primary destination for overseas capacity transfer remains Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, due to favorable business conditions and labor costs [4]. - Companies are also increasing their warehousing capabilities in the U.S. and surrounding regions to mitigate risks from geopolitical events [5]. - There is a possibility of establishing manufacturing facilities in the U.S. under extreme circumstances, although most companies remain cautious about this option [5]. Company-Specific Insights - The report provides a detailed analysis of various companies' revenue proportions from U.S. exports and their overseas capacity ratios, indicating a diverse range of dependency on international markets [6].