Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The banking sector has shown a decline of 2.9% during the observation period from September 9 to September 13, 2024, underperforming the overall market which fell by 2.0% [2][37] - The report anticipates a policy implementation phase starting in September, with expectations for interest rate cuts and other monetary policies to support credit growth [6][38] - The report highlights that the net profit growth rate for A-share banks in 2024 has slightly increased by 0.02 percentage points, indicating a positive trend in earnings expectations [6][38] Summary by Sections 1. Market Observation - The banking sector's performance has been weaker compared to the overall market, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks experiencing declines of -2.59%, -2.39%, -4.41%, and -2.79% respectively [2][37] - H-shares of banks outperformed A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.8% and H-share banks down by only 0.5% [2][37] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests waiting for policy implementation, with expectations for monetary easing measures to be introduced in September [6][38] - It is anticipated that the fourth quarter of 2024 will see stabilization in social financing, leading to improved credit growth [6][38] 3. Sector Performance - The average price of bank convertible bonds decreased by 0.70%, outperforming the Zhongzheng convertible bond index by 1.04 percentage points [3][38] - Individual bank stocks showed varied performance, with some banks like Suzhou Bank and Beijing Bank experiencing significant declines of 6.15% and 6.13% respectively [2][37] 4. Earnings Forecast Tracking - The report notes that the earnings growth expectations for 2024 have seen slight upward adjustments for several banks, including Agricultural Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and Beijing Bank [6][38] - The overall net profit growth rate for A-share banks is projected to improve, reflecting a positive outlook for the sector [6][38] 5. Convertible Bond Performance - The report indicates that the performance of bank convertible bonds has been generally negative, with most bonds experiencing price declines [3][38]
银行投资观察:等待政策落地
GF SECURITIES·2024-09-26 09:09