Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 3.20, representing a 35% upside from the current price of HKD 2.37 [2][5] Core Views - The company's energy equipment business has shown a recovery in profitability, with strong growth momentum expected in the future [2] - Revenue in H1 2024 increased by 25.6% YoY to RMB 17.04 billion, while net profit surged by 515.7% YoY to RMB 523 million [3] - Gross profit rose by 34.0% YoY to RMB 1.95 billion, with gross margin improving by 0.7 pct to 11.4% [3] - New power equipment orders increased by 2.84% YoY to RMB 26.03 billion, with coal/hydro/nuclear power equipment orders at RMB 10.83/4.47/3.06 billion respectively [3] - The company's order backlog is sufficient to support growth in the energy equipment business, with potential for further margin improvement [4] - Hydropower equipment and thermal power flexibility transformation are expected to provide new growth drivers [4] - Operating efficiency has improved, with the combined expense ratio decreasing by 1.2 pct to 8.6% and the debt-to-asset ratio dropping by 2.8 pct to 79.6% [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E/2025E/2026E is projected at RMB 37.31/43.29/46.12 billion, with YoY growth of 27.6%/16.0%/6.5% [6] - Net profit for 2024E/2025E/2026E is forecasted at RMB 950 million/1.39 billion/1.68 billion, with a 3-year CAGR of 42.5% [5][6] - Gross margin is expected to improve to 15.5%/16.2%/16.3% in 2024E/2025E/2026E, up from 12.1% in 2023 [15] - Net margin is projected to increase to 3.0%/3.9%/4.3% in 2024E/2025E/2026E, compared to 2.1% in 2023 [15] Valuation - The company is trading at a 2024E PE of 7.0x and a TTM PB of 0.5x, which is lower than industry peers [5][13] - Industry peers such as Dongfang Electric and Shanghai Electric are trading at higher PE multiples of 6.4x and 34.2x respectively [13] Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from the development of the energy equipment market, particularly in hydropower and thermal power flexibility transformation [4][5] - The rapid development of pumped storage and the transformation of thermal power flexibility are key growth areas [4] - The company's order backlog and improved order quality are expected to support future revenue growth and margin expansion [4]
哈尔滨电气：能源装备业务盈利能力恢复，看好后续增长动能