行业评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 电力设备 2026年2月8日 国内电改与海外需求共振 风电电网迎来高质量发展 --电力设备行业2026年投资策略 证券分析师 姓名：查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 邮箱：zhahao@huayuanstock.com 姓名：刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 邮箱：liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 姓名：戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 邮箱：daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 报告要点 2 n 电力全面市场化元年，电力行业有望迎高质量发展。"双碳"战略提出以来，为适应日益提高的新能源并网比例，我国电力市场化进展加速， 并不断进行着电力体制改革。从发改价格[2021]1439号文提出煤电和工商业用户全面进入电力市场开始，我国电改脉络事实上已非常清晰，即 在为新能源接入以及电力市场化服务。在"十四五"最后一年，多项被忽视但事实上有深远影响的政策推出，"十五五"我国电力市场有望有 序推进，电力行业有望迎高质量发展。 n 国内电网：电改有望推动 ...

国元国际主要观点如下： 公司预计25财年净利润26.5亿元；上调模型营收预期 公司预计2025年实现归母净利润26.5亿元，同比增长约57.2%，超过该行此前25亿元的盈利预期。期间 净利润大幅增长的主要原因包括营业收入增长、产品盈利能力进一步提高。这与该行此前对公司前期收 获的高价值订单将逐步释放，毛利率仍有上升空间的判断一致；同时由于公司生产规模扩大，智能化制 造能力显著增强，企业的规模效应和运营效率大幅提升。 国元国际发布研报称，更新哈尔滨电气(01133)营收预期并提升目标价，给予公司目标估值 PE(2026E)15.0倍，对应PE(TTM)19.80倍，提升目标价至26.35港元，对应现价预计升幅30.4%，维持"买 入"评级。 收入部分，主要提高了2026-202727E公司水电、核电及现代制造服务业的收入增速，主要因为公司水 电、核电在手订单饱满，行业发展势能良好，且水电能源装备有望打开出口通道；火电灵活性改造订单 有望从十五五中期逐步释放。利润部分，由于公司25年净利润超预期，因此上调2026-2027E毛利率预测 值，逐步对标同行业平均水平。 该行更新预期模型，上调了公司未来营收预期，主要影 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国元国际发布研报称，更新哈尔滨电气(01133)营收预期并提升目标价，给予公司目 标估值PE(2026E)15.0倍，对应PE(TTM)19.80倍，提升目标价至26.35港元，对应现价预计升幅30.4%， 维持"买入"评级。 国元国际主要观点如下： 公司预计25财年净利润26.5亿元；上调模型营收预期 公司预计2025年实现归母净利润26.5亿元，同比增长约57.2%，超过该行此前25亿元的盈利预期。期间 净利润大幅增长的主要原因包括营业收入增长、产品盈利能力进一步提高。这与该行此前对公司前期收 获的高价值订单将逐步释放，毛利率仍有上升空间的判断一致；同时由于公司生产规模扩大，智能化制 造能力显著增强，企业的规模效应和运营效率大幅提升。 该行更新预期模型，上调了公司未来营收预期，主要影响包括： 收入部分，主要提高了2026-202727E公司水电、核电及现代制造服务业的收入增速，主要因为公司水 电、核电在手订单饱满，行业发展势能良好，且水电能源装备有望打开出口通道；火电灵活性改造订单 有望从十五五中期逐步释放。利润部分，由于公司25年净利润超预期，因此上调2026-2027E毛利率预测 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary for gas turbine business in Shanghai by December 2025 to seize opportunities in the gas turbine industry and expand its high-end equipment manufacturing sector [2] Group 1: Strategic Positioning - The gas turbine business is one of the main focus areas for the company, alongside deep-sea wind power and nuclear power [2] - The establishment of the specialized subsidiary is a specific measure to extend the company's business from component supply to systematic solution provision, aligning with its strategic positioning as a "thick-walled sliding bearing and power equipment system solution provider" [2] Group 2: Partnerships and Collaborations - The company collaborates with major domestic power enterprises, including Shanghai Electric, Harbin Electric, and Dongfang Electric [2] - The company is recognized as an important qualified supplier of sliding bearings and structural components for Siemens in the Asia-Pacific region [2]

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 哈爾濱電氣股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 足夠公眾持股量的確認(註4) | 根據《主板上市規則》第13.32D(1)條或第19A.28D(1)條 / 《GEM上市規則》第17.37D(1)條或第25.21D(1)條，我們在此確認，就上述所列股份類別而言，截至本月底: | | --- | | ✔ 已符合適用的公眾持股量要求（見下方） | | 未符合適用的公眾持股量要求（見下方） | | 根據《主板上市規則》第13.32B條或第19A.28B條 / 《GEM上市規則》第17.37B條或第25.21B條（視情況而定）所載的有關股份類別的最低公眾持股量要求為： | | 適用的公眾持股量門檻 初始指定門檻 - 上市股份所屬類別的已發行股份總數(不包括庫存股份)的25% | | 額外信息 | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | ...

涨超8%，报20.48港元，成交额1.61亿港元。 消息面上，哈尔滨电气此前公告，预期2025财政年度取得归属于母公司所有者的净利润约人民币26.5亿元，上年同期取得约人民币16.86亿元，同比大增 57%。主要原因是公司2025财政年度营业收入较去年同期有所增长，产品盈利能力进一步提高。机构认为，公司作为国内传统电源设备龙头"三大电气"之 一，有望受益于：1）国内电力需求增长和最高负荷上行，煤气水核等传统电源保供价值凸显，"十五五"规划再次强调多能并举；2）数据中心带动海外缺电 主线延续，海外燃机紧供需下公司小燃机或有望实现出口。 值得关注的是，杰瑞股份近日公告，签署12.65亿元美国数据中心燃气轮机发电机组销售合同。国投证券此前指出，AIDC产业蓬勃发展，燃机行业深度受益 于算力资本开支的扩张周期。在海外零部件产能扩张较慢、主机厂在手订单积压多的背景下，推荐具备客户卡位优势、供给刚性、放量确定性高的环节。 编辑/Rocky ...

哈尔滨电气(01133)涨超8%，截至发稿，涨8.43%，报20.46港元，成交额1.43亿港元。 值得关注的是，杰瑞股份（002353）近日公告，签署12.65亿元美国数据中心燃气轮机发电机组销售合 同。国投证券此前指出，AIDC产业蓬勃发展，燃机行业深度受益于算力资本开支的扩张周期。在海外 零部件产能扩张较慢、主机厂在手订单积压多的背景下，推荐具备客户卡位优势、供给刚性、放量确定 性高的环节。 消息面上，哈尔滨电气此前公告，预期2025财政年度取得归属于母公司所有者的净利润约人民币26.5亿 元，上年同期取得约人民币16.86亿元，同比大增57%。主要原因是公司2025财政年度营业收入较去年 同期有所增长，产品盈利能力进一步提高。华泰证券认为，公司作为国内传统电源设备龙头"三大电 气"之一，有望受益于：1)国内电力需求增长和最高负荷上行，煤气水核等传统电源保供价值凸显，"十 五五"规划再次强调多能并举；2)数据中心带动海外缺电主线延续，海外燃机紧供需下公司小燃机或有 望实现出口。 ...

消息面上，哈尔滨电气此前公告，预期2025财政年度取得归属于母公司所有者的净利润约人民币26.5亿 元，上年同期取得约人民币16.86亿元，同比大增57%。主要原因是公司2025财政年度营业收入较去年 同期有所增长，产品盈利能力进一步提高。华泰证券认为，公司作为国内传统电源设备龙头"三大电 气"之一，有望受益于：1）国内电力需求增长和最高负荷上行，煤气水核等传统电源保供价值凸 显，"十五五"规划再次强调多能并举；2）数据中心带动海外缺电主线延续，海外燃机紧供需下公司小 燃机或有望实现出口。 智通财经APP获悉，哈尔滨电气(01133)涨超8%，截至发稿，涨8.43%，报20.46港元，成交额1.43亿港 元。 值得关注的是，杰瑞股份近日公告，签署12.65亿元美国数据中心燃气轮机发电机组销售合同。国投证 券此前指出，AIDC产业蓬勃发展，燃机行业深度受益于算力资本开支的扩张周期。在海外零部件产能 扩张较慢、主机厂在手订单积压多的背景下，推荐具备客户卡位优势、供给刚性、放量确定性高的环 节。 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the electricity and natural gas sectors, highlighting stable revenue mechanisms and growth potential in consumption and pricing [1][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a refined capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and ensure fair compensation for various power sources [4][6]. - It notes that natural gas consumption is expected to grow, supported by favorable weather conditions and improved economic indicators, despite short-term price fluctuations [10][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Improved Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new power system [4]. - The new mechanism aims to ensure that different types of power generation, including coal, gas, and new energy sources, receive fair compensation based on their peak supply capabilities [6][7]. - The report highlights that the refined pricing structure will lead to more predictable revenue for power generation companies, reducing volatility in earnings [7]. 2. Natural Gas: Continued Growth in Consumption - The report indicates that the apparent consumption of natural gas in China is projected to grow by 0.1% in 2025, with December consumption reaching 38.57 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [29]. - It notes that the recent cold weather has supported high natural gas prices, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price at $7.18/mmBtu, while European prices remain elevated due to low inventory levels and geopolitical tensions [10][12]. - The report suggests that the natural gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved pricing mechanisms, leading to a recovery in profitability for city gas companies [31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For coal-fired power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their stable revenue sources [8]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are highlighted for their potential to improve profit margins through reduced capital expenditures [8]. - In the nuclear sector, China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are suggested for their growth potential as new units are approved [8]. - The report also recommends focusing on integrated natural gas companies like ENN Energy and China Gas Holdings, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and increased sales [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment due to policy improvements and market dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent improvements in the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and enhance the profitability of various power sources [6][10]. - It notes a slight increase in natural gas consumption in 2025, with a projected growth of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable demand outlook for the gas sector [32]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector: Capacity Pricing Mechanism Improvement - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new energy system [6]. - The new mechanism introduces differentiated pricing for various types of regulatory power sources, ensuring that their capacity value is adequately compensated [7]. - A unified compensation standard for peak capacity across different power sources is established, promoting rational investment and resource allocation in the power sector [8][10]. 2. Gas Sector: Continued Growth in Natural Gas Consumption - Natural gas consumption in China is expected to reach 385.7 billion cubic meters by December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [32]. - The report emphasizes the impact of cold weather on gas prices, with global prices remaining high, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, which supports the profitability of gas companies [13][19]. - The report suggests that the gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved demand, particularly for city gas companies, with recommendations for several key players in the market [34]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report notes that the public utility, power, gas, and environmental sectors underperformed relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the week of January 24 to January 30, 2026 [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - As of the end of 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with significant growth in solar and wind power installations [43]. - The report includes various company announcements, highlighting performance forecasts and operational updates from key players in the energy sector [44].