快递行业：价格内卷有望缓解，高质量发展带动利润提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the express delivery industry, indicating expectations for growth and profitability improvements in the coming quarters [1]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry has experienced unexpected growth in parcel volume, driven by the rise of live e-commerce and social platforms, despite a decline in average revenue per parcel [6][8]. - Companies have adopted varied strategies to navigate the competitive landscape, resulting in profit growth across the board, with notable increases in net profit for major players [2][10]. - The report anticipates a potential easing of the price war in the fourth quarter, as demand is expected to peak seasonally, and companies may approach capacity saturation [17][24]. - Regulatory bodies are emphasizing a shift from price competition to service quality, which is expected to influence long-term growth in the industry [3][25]. - The correlation between company market value and profitability is strengthening, suggesting a market shift towards valuing quality over quantity in the express delivery sector [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Growth and Pricing Dynamics - The express delivery sector has seen a 22.5% year-on-year increase in parcel volume, totaling 1,088 billion parcels by the end of August [6][8]. - The rise in low-cost e-commerce parcels has accelerated the trend towards smaller packages, intensifying price competition among companies [6][8]. 2. Company Strategies and Profitability - Major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Shentong have reported varying parcel volume growth rates, with Shentong and Yunda outperforming the industry average [10][14]. - Despite fierce price competition, companies have managed to increase their net profits, with Zhongtong and Yuantong showing resilience in maintaining higher revenue per parcel [10][14]. 3. Capacity Utilization and Future Outlook - The report suggests that the price war may ease in the fourth quarter due to seasonal demand peaks and improved capacity utilization among companies [17][24]. - The express delivery industry is expected to transition towards a focus on service quality, as indicated by regulatory guidance aimed at reducing "involution" in competition [3][25]. 4. Market Trends and Valuation - The relationship between market capitalization and profitability is becoming more pronounced, reflecting a shift in investor focus from volume growth to profitability and service quality [30].