9.26政治局会议解读：货币“大礼包”之后，财政地产资本市场政策如何发力？

Economic Overview - The current economic situation shows "some new conditions and problems," with a focus on completing annual targets and increasing policy effectiveness[2] - Key issues include a rapid decline in the real estate cycle, sluggish consumer spending, lower-than-expected infrastructure investment growth, and a more complex external environment[3] Monetary Policy - The meeting emphasized the need to lower the reserve requirement ratio and implement significant interest rate cuts, aligning with the previously announced monetary policy "package"[4] - The focus is on preventing cross-infection of real estate risks and systemic financial risks rather than returning to old leverage-driven growth paths[4] Fiscal Policy - There is an increased likelihood of issuing 1 trillion yuan in ordinary government bonds in Q4, with a projected budget deficit rate adjustment to 3.8% for this year and around 4.2% for 2025[6] - The meeting highlighted the need for fiscal expansion while acknowledging constraints due to declining land transactions and fiscal revenue shortfalls[6] Real Estate Market - Policies are primarily supply-side focused, aiming to stabilize the real estate market by controlling new supply, optimizing existing stock, and improving quality[9] - The bottom of the current real estate cycle will depend on the completion of demand-side adjustments[9] Capital Market - The importance of boosting the capital market has been underscored, with a focus on attracting long-term funds, supporting mergers and acquisitions, and promoting public fund reforms[12] - New policies will encourage long-term capital from various asset management institutions to enter the capital market, reflecting a shift from real estate to long-term financial investments[12]