证券行业深度研究报告：一叶知秋系列八：券商经纪业务激荡卅年，价值创造未来路在何方？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, Guolian Securities, Zheshang Securities, and East Money [3] Core Views - The brokerage business profit model is defined as: Profit = Number of Clients × (Average Assets per Client × Average Revenue Generation Rate - Customer Acquisition Cost) - Operating Costs [5] - Over the past 30 years, the brokerage industry has seen a significant increase in the number of clients but a decline in the effective client rate, with the effective client rate dropping from 44% in 2007 to 14% in 2022 [5] - The average net commission rate has decreased from 1.62‰ in 2008 to 0.205‰ in 2023, an 87% decline, leading to a situation where the industry has grown in volume but not in revenue [5] - The future of retail brokerage competition will likely focus on offline services, with online services serving as a supplementary channel for managing existing and long-tail clients [6] Industry Overview - The brokerage business primarily includes three parts: securities trading commission income, seat rental income, and financial product distribution income [11] - The total revenue of the brokerage business has not seen significant growth over the past 20 years, with the daily average stock and fund trading volume increasing by 794% from 2008 to 2023, while the net income from brokerage business only increased by 12% [12] - The industry's average net commission rate has decreased from 1.62‰ in 2008 to 0.205‰ in 2023, primarily due to intense price competition [13] Historical Development of Brokerage Business - The first major transformation in the brokerage industry was initiated by the "Bank-Securities Link" in 1999, which allowed clients to trade securities directly through bank accounts, significantly expanding the client base for some brokers [22] - The second major transformation was the introduction of online account opening in 2013, which, combined with the internet securities business and the "one person, multiple accounts" policy in 2015, led to a surge in client acquisition through online channels [33] - The third major transformation was the shift from trading commissions to wealth management, driven by the rapid growth of public fund sales from 2020 to 2021 [42] Current Challenges and Future Directions - The brokerage industry is currently facing challenges due to a prolonged bear market, with both new and existing businesses under pressure [44] - The reform of public fund fee structures has disrupted the traditional wealth management business model, forcing brokers to focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement [44] - Many brokers are now closing down physical branches to reduce operating costs, with some brokers like Guotou Securities closing over 30 branches in the first half of 2024 [45] - The future of brokerage business may involve more centralized operations through financial technology, especially for managing long-tail clients [46]