黄金价格复盘系列2：1980-1991年

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The period from 1980 to 1991 saw the gold price maintain a low and narrow fluctuation range, influenced by various economic events and policies [5][8]. - The copper market experienced a significant decline in prices due to high inflation and economic stagnation, followed by a recovery in 1987 driven by reduced consumer inventories and strong demand [6]. - Aluminum prices fluctuated due to global economic conditions, with a notable increase in 1987 followed by a downturn as supply outpaced demand [6]. - Silver prices faced downward pressure from high interest rates and a strong dollar, with limited recovery despite stable supply and moderate demand growth [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Events Influencing Gold Prices (1980-1991) - In January 1980, gold prices peaked at $850 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions and high inflation [9]. - The implementation of strict monetary policies by the U.S. led to rising interest rates and a subsequent decline in gold demand [5][14]. 2. Price Review of Copper, Aluminum, and Silver - Copper prices fell sharply in the early 1980s due to economic recession and oversupply, but rebounded in 1987 [6]. - Aluminum faced a similar trajectory, with prices rising in 1987 before declining again due to increased production [6]. - Silver prices dropped significantly in the early 1980s, with limited recovery due to high interest rates and a strong dollar [6]. 3. Economic Indicators and Gold Prices - The U.S. GDP growth rate fluctuated significantly during this period, with notable peaks and troughs impacting gold prices [14][15]. - The unemployment rate reached a peak of nearly 11% in 1982, influencing consumer behavior and gold demand [14][15]. 4. Trade Deficits and Economic Conditions - The U.S. trade deficit expanded significantly during the early 1980s due to economic weakness and a strong dollar, before contracting in the early 1990s [27]. - Fiscal deficits increased during this period, peaking at $2687 billion in 1991, driven by recession and increased defense spending [30].