中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】宏观张德礼：宏观视角看924三部委一揽子政策-20240927

Core Insights - The macroeconomic policy package announced on September 24 by three ministries aims to restore confidence, improve expectations, and stabilize the economy, with a focus on monetary policy, capital markets, and real estate [2][3] - The announcement's timing suggests a proactive approach to policy changes, indicating a potential shift in economic strategy [2] - Future policies are anticipated, including new fiscal tools and consumption incentives, with an increased likelihood of additional fiscal measures in the fourth quarter [2][3] Macroeconomic Policy - The policy package includes a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 20 basis point cut in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.5% [3] - The average reduction in existing mortgage rates is expected to be around 0.5 percentage points, which will lower the long-term mortgage cost for residents [3] - The reduction in the down payment ratio for second homes from 25% to 15% aims to stimulate demand and support home purchases [3] Real Estate Sector - The extension of financial support policies until the end of 2026 is expected to help stabilize the real estate market and mitigate risks [3] - The central bank's support for land acquisition by real estate companies is designed to alleviate financial pressures and enhance market liquidity [3] - The anticipated policies are expected to lead to a marginal improvement in real estate sales, although the overall market conditions remain challenging [3]