9月26日中共中央政治局会议点评：经济政策有望持续发力

Economic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26, 2024, emphasized the need to effectively implement existing policies and introduce new measures to achieve annual economic and social development goals[1] - The meeting indicated a stronger commitment to easing policies compared to the July 30 meeting, with more specific policy directions[1] - The meeting's outcomes slightly exceeded market expectations, suggesting a sustained push for economic policy initiatives[1] Fiscal Policy Measures - There is a call to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments and ensure necessary fiscal expenditures, including the issuance of long-term special government bonds and local government bonds[2] - The pace of bond issuance by the central and local governments from January to July was slow, but an acceleration in issuance is expected in the remaining months of the year to support government investment[2] Monetary Policy Directions - The meeting highlighted the need for not only lowering the reserve requirement ratio but also implementing significant interest rate cuts, with expectations of a 25 to 50 basis point reduction within the year[2] - Future interest rate cuts are anticipated, as the meeting did not reiterate the previous emphasis on a stable monetary policy[2] Capital Market Support - The meeting stressed the importance of boosting the capital market by facilitating the entry of long-term funds from social security, insurance, and wealth management into the market[2] - Specific measures were announced to simplify the merger and acquisition processes for listed companies, aiming to enhance market activity[2] Social and Employment Considerations - The meeting addressed employment issues for key demographics and the stability of essential goods and services prices, including food and utilities[2] - The clarity of the policy directions from the meeting is expected to bolster confidence and support economic recovery[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas inflation and economic recession, which could impact domestic economic stability[2]