The Division of Revenues from Unexpected Demand Shocks

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The paper investigates the impact of unexpected demand shocks on worker compensation, revealing that these shocks lead to higher average wages, particularly benefiting high earners within firms [2][9][39] - It highlights the role of managerial skill in the distribution of revenues from demand shocks, indicating that firms with highly skilled managers tend to share revenue windfalls more unequally among workers [10][40] Summary by Sections Introduction - The study aims to understand how firm-level revenue shocks affect wage setting and the mechanisms behind wage differentials across firms and workers [6][9] Data - The analysis utilizes a rich dataset from private sector firms in Portugal from 2006 to 2018, combining firm census data, export transactions, and employer-employee panel data [7][15][16] Methodology - A new methodology is proposed to identify unexpected demand shocks at the firm level, using forecast errors in GDP growth of export markets [20][21] Results - Unexpected demand shocks significantly impact sales, employment, investment, and average wages, with larger effects observed for negative shocks [9][32] - The analysis shows that wage increases occur mainly in the form of higher base wages and overtime pay, indicating a sharing of unexpected revenue with workers [10][33] - The distribution of wage increases is highly unequal, favoring higher earners within firms [39] Managerial Skill - The report examines how managerial skills influence the distribution of revenues from demand shocks, finding that firms with skilled managers tend to have better management practices and higher wage distributions for top earners [40][41][46]