9月26日政治局会议学习：增量政策再发力，提预期、增信心再加码

Economic Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting on September 26 emphasized the need to enhance economic responsibility and urgency, aiming to achieve annual economic and social development goals[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.61% to recover above 3000 points, with A-share trading volume reaching approximately CNY 1.17 trillion, marking a new high[1] Fiscal Policy - Increased fiscal and monetary policy adjustments are expected, with a focus on ensuring necessary fiscal expenditures and implementing special government bonds and local government bonds effectively[1] - There is anticipation for further fiscal stimulus in Q4, potentially accelerating the completion of this year's budget goals[1] Monetary Policy - The meeting called for significant interest rate cuts and a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, aligning with global easing trends following the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point cut[2] - The People's Bank of China has already initiated a reduction in the MLF rate by 0.3 percentage points, with LPR and deposit rates expected to follow suit[2] Real Estate Market - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by controlling new construction, optimizing existing inventory, and enhancing quality[3] - Adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and reductions in existing mortgage rates are anticipated to support market recovery[3] Capital Market Development - The meeting highlighted the need to boost the capital market by facilitating long-term funds' entry, including social security and insurance funds[5] - The introduction of a "stabilization fund" is expected to encourage long-term investments in the capital market, with ongoing reforms supporting market recovery[5] Consumer and Employment Policies - Policies to promote consumption and support employment for vulnerable groups, including recent graduates and migrant workers, were emphasized[6] - Local governments, such as Shanghai, are expected to introduce consumption vouchers to stimulate spending in Q4[6] Market Outlook - A comprehensive set of policies is expected to enhance market confidence, with a potential rebound in the stock market and a bottoming out phase anticipated[7] - The real estate sector is likely to see valuation rebounds due to positive policy expectations, while non-bank financials and consumer sectors are also positioned for recovery[8]