Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, estimated between 81 million to 91 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 943.42% to 1072.24% compared to 7.76 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The substantial increase in net profit is primarily driven by the significant rise in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which has increased by 59.47% year-on-year, leading to higher rental rates and improved profit margins [2]. - The company is actively upgrading its capacity structure and has begun to deploy new capacities into more profitable foreign trade routes, enhancing its competitive edge [2]. - The upcoming seasonal peak in the market is expected to further boost domestic shipping rates, with a projected 1.61% growth in global shipping trade volume and a 4.3% increase in dry bulk trade volume in 2024 [2]. - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are 1.06 billion yuan, 1.17 billion yuan, and 1.33 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 149 million yuan, 170 million yuan, and 196 million yuan [3][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue and net profit over the next three years, with a projected net profit growth of 5912.36% in 2024 compared to 2023 [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.0045 yuan in 2023 to 0.27 yuan in 2024, 0.31 yuan in 2025, and 0.35 yuan in 2026 [9]. Market Outlook - The report indicates a favorable market environment for the shipping industry, with expectations of continued growth in dry bulk trade and improved profitability for the company [2][3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in the domestic shipping market due to the reduction of outdated vessels and improved supply-demand dynamics [2].
国航远洋：三季报业绩预告点评：运力结构升级调整，归母净利预计大幅提升