恒瑞医药：创新升级，全球化加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected net profit of 6.181 billion, 7.578 billion, and 8.341 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [5][8]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transitioned from a "me-too" model to a "first-in-class" and "best-in-class" innovation strategy, focusing on high-quality, differentiated products [14][18]. - The company has experienced a significant recovery in its innovative drug segment, achieving a growth rate of 33% in the first half of 2024, driven by new product approvals and a more stable pricing environment in the healthcare negotiations [21][25]. - The company has established a robust pipeline of BD (business development) collaborations, with total upfront and milestone payments reaching approximately 10 billion USD since 2023, indicating strong potential for future revenue growth [4][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Innovative Drug Recovery and BD Contributions - The company has over 10 billion in generics affected by centralized procurement, but has quickly recovered by focusing on high-difficulty generics and improved new drugs [4][19]. - The innovative drug segment faced pressure in 2021 and 2022 but has rebounded with a growth rate exceeding 20% in 2023, primarily due to new product launches [21][25]. - The BD collaborations have exploded in growth, with significant deals contributing to the company's revenue, including a 1.6 billion Euro deal confirmed in 2024 [25]. 2. Platform-Driven Innovation Upgrades - The company is actively optimizing its pipeline by eliminating low-competitiveness products and focusing on high-quality, differentiated offerings [4][14]. - The establishment of advanced technology platforms such as PROTAC and ADC has positioned the company for future innovation and internationalization [4][14]. 3. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains the profit forecast for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 6.181 billion, 7.578 billion, and 8.341 billion, respectively [5][8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 48X for 2024, which is significantly lower than the average PE of comparable companies at 61X, indicating a potential upside of 28% [5][8].