长债大幅调整，怎么办

Group 1: Market Reactions and Trends - On September 26, the Central Political Bureau meeting boosted market risk appetite, leading to a 3.61% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, surpassing 3000 points[2] - Bond market yields surged, with 7-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond yields rising by 8.0bp, 6.8bp, and 8.5bp to 1.96%, 2.10%, and 2.24% respectively[2] - The 10-year and 30-year government bond yield pricing ranges are estimated at 1.97%-2.10% and 2.16%-2.30% respectively, indicating that the 10-year yield is near the upper limit of its range[2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Implications - Concerns over incremental fiscal policy adjustments have led to significant bond market adjustments, with potential fiscal tools including unused government bond quotas totaling 828.285 billion yuan[3] - Three scenarios for government bond issuance are proposed: no issuance, 1 trillion yuan issuance, and 2 trillion yuan issuance, with net issuance estimates of approximately 1.3 trillion, 2.3 trillion, and 3.3 trillion yuan respectively for Q4[3] - If 1-2 trillion yuan of government bonds are issued, the direct effect on GDP could be an increase of approximately 0.8%-1.6%[4] Group 3: Market Adjustments and Risks - The bond market may face a "composite pressure" from both equity market rebounds and fiscal policy expectations, with potential yield increases of around 15bp for 10-year and 30-year bonds[6] - Historical data shows that in Q4 2022, a 1 trillion yuan bond issuance led to yield increases of 66bp for 1-year bonds and 18bp for 10-year bonds, indicating sensitivity to supply pressures[6] - The current bond market adjustment has not yet triggered negative feedback effects in the credit sector, but future monitoring of interest rate and credit linkages is necessary[7]