【粤开宏观】采取更大力度的举措扭转经济下行压力

Group 1: Economic Recovery and Challenges - China's economy is in a post-pandemic recovery phase, achieving a 5.0% growth in the first half of the year, but facing downward pressure as the GDP growth rate in Q2 decreased by 0.6 percentage points compared to Q1[3] - The main contradiction in the economy is insufficient domestic effective demand leading to supply-demand imbalance, affecting confidence and investment[3] - There is a need to address institutional barriers that prioritize supply over demand to resolve the supply-demand imbalance[3] Group 2: Real Estate and Fiscal Policy - Real estate and local finance are core variables affecting economic operation, necessitating optimized real estate policies to reverse declining housing prices and support local debt[4] - Fiscal policy should focus on expenditure growth rather than deficit rates to effectively implement counter-cyclical adjustments[17] - The issuance of additional government bonds is recommended to support local governments and enhance their financial stability[17] Group 3: Debt Risk Management - Local government debt risks are manageable, and the focus should be on mitigating debt risks rather than merely reducing debt scale[19] - Strategies to manage debt include asset revitalization, issuing special refinancing bonds, and enhancing cooperation between finance and fiscal policies[19] - The principle of "whoever's child, whoever carries" should be maintained, with conditions set for central government assistance to avoid moral hazard[20] Group 4: Consumption and Income Distribution - Fiscal policy can enhance both investment and consumption, with short-term measures like cash subsidies potentially boosting consumer purchasing power[7] - Long-term solutions require reforms in income distribution to reduce wealth disparity and improve consumer capacity[24] - Delaying retirement is suggested as one method to alleviate social security pressure on fiscal budgets[25]