中原证券：晨会聚焦-20240927

Key Points Summary Economic Overview - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized that the fundamental economic conditions in China remain favorable, with strong resilience and potential, despite emerging challenges [3][4] - The meeting also highlighted the need to boost the capital market by guiding long-term funds into the market and supporting mergers and acquisitions of listed companies [3][4] Market Analysis - A-shares have shown a significant upward trend, driven by multiple favorable factors, including the recent announcement of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to support market recovery [3][4][8] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are currently at 12.40 times and 26.82 times, respectively, indicating that the market is still undervalued and suitable for long-term investment [4][8] Industry Insights - The power generation sector has seen a turnaround in thermal power generation, while hydropower growth has slowed down [10] - The lithium battery sector has faced challenges, with a 6.08% decline in revenue and a 33.83% drop in net profit in the first half of 2024 compared to the previous year [12] - The semiconductor materials sector has shown continuous growth, with a 19.5% year-on-year increase in sales in China [16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as finance, real estate, automotive, and semiconductors for short-term investment opportunities [4][8] - In the context of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, sectors related to real estate and resource-based chemicals are expected to benefit, particularly in exports [13][14] - The home furnishing export chain is anticipated to see growth due to the recovery in U.S. housing sales, supported by the Fed's monetary easing [14][15] Sector Performance - The new materials sector has been underperforming, with a 4.63% decline in the index, but is expected to benefit from recovery in downstream demand [16] - The chemical industry, particularly those related to real estate, is projected to gain from the Fed's easing policies, enhancing export opportunities [13][14]