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药品行业周报:市场回暖,建议关注优质标的底部配置机会
Xiangcai Securities·2024-09-27 03:41

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [22][23]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced a slight decline of 0.8% recently, underperforming the overall market by 2.06 percentage points. The chemical pharmaceuticals and biological drugs have seen declines of 2.7% and 0.7%, respectively, while the raw materials sector has decreased by 0.3% [2][19]. - The report highlights a shift in focus from revenue growth to profitability within the biotech sector, with traditional pharmaceutical companies emerging from a low point in their transition between old and new growth drivers. The recovery in the raw materials sector is also noted, with a positive trend in performance following a period of adjustment [3][19]. - Two main investment strategies are recommended: 1. Focus on innovative drugs driven by internationalization and product strength, suggesting a selection of stocks based on clinical needs, technology platforms, and product capabilities [22]. 2. Emphasize recovery in demand and efficiency improvements, particularly in the raw materials sector, which is beginning to recover after significant asset impairments [22][23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's recent performance has been weak, with a notable decline in the second quarter attributed to overall earnings downturns. The sector is transitioning towards an alpha market phase, with significant performance differentiation among sub-sectors [3][19]. Valuation Metrics - As of September 24, the pharmaceutical sector's PE-TTM (excluding negative values) stands at 22.6X, below one standard deviation, while the PB ratio is at 2.17X, also below two standard deviations [2][19]. Long-term Outlook - The report emphasizes that the domestic innovative drug industry has established a relatively complete ecosystem of policies, talent, and capital during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The transition into the 14th Five-Year Plan marks a high-quality development phase for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries, presenting historical opportunities for transformation and upgrade [22][23].