地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告-辽宁篇

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or region under review. Core Insights - Liaoning Province, located in Northeast China, is a significant old industrial base with key industries including equipment manufacturing, metallurgy, and petrochemicals. The province's economic total ranks in the middle of the country, while its per capita GDP is below the national average. In 2023, the province's general public budget revenue ranked 18th nationally, showing strong stability but a low fiscal self-sufficiency rate. The real estate market's downturn has led to a decline in government fund income, with substantial reliance on upper-level subsidies for local financial strength. The province faces high government debt and liability rates, but national policies supporting the revitalization of Northeast China present development opportunities [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Economic and Fiscal Strength of Liaoning Province - Liaoning Province is rich in mineral resources and has a well-established transportation system. It is a crucial old industrial base in China, with a GDP of 30,209.4 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 5.3%. The province's economic structure is shifting towards a more significant contribution from the tertiary sector, which accounted for 52.4% of the GDP in 2023 [3][5][7]. 2. Fiscal Situation and Debt - In 2023, Liaoning's general public budget revenue was 275.53 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.1%. The province's fiscal self-sufficiency rate was 41.91%, indicating a reliance on upper-level subsidies, which contributed 53.21% to local financial resources. The local government debt rate was 187.98%, ranking third nationally, indicating a heavy debt burden [10][11][13][28]. 3. Economic and Fiscal Strength of Cities in Liaoning Province - Economic development in Liaoning's cities is uneven, with Shenyang and Dalian showing significantly higher economic strength. In 2023, Shenyang and Dalian accounted for 29.11% and 27.01% of the province's GDP, respectively. The GDP growth rates among cities varied, with the lowest being 1.6% in Liaoyang and the highest at 6.1% in Shenyang [14][20][21]. 4. Debt Situation of Cities - By the end of 2023, all cities in Liaoning saw an increase in government debt compared to the previous year, with Dalian and Shenyang having the highest debt balances. The debt rates for cities like Panjin and Yingkou exceeded 400%, indicating significant financial pressure [27][28]. 5. City Investment and Financing - The number of bond-issuing urban investment enterprises in Liaoning is limited, primarily at the city level. In 2023, the issuance of bonds by these enterprises decreased, with a notable net outflow of financing. However, in early 2024, Shenyang's urban investment enterprises saw a significant increase in bond issuance, indicating a potential recovery in financing conditions [29][31].