Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable performance of micro-loan ABS with no downgrades in ratings, and a majority of securities have seen upgrades [2][30][32] Core Insights - The overall issuance scale of micro-loan ABS has slightly decreased, with a total of 126 issuances amounting to 1214.79 billion, a year-on-year decline of 9.67% [4][5] - The ABN market has shown significant growth, with a 181.82% increase in the number of issuances and a 96.06% increase in issuance scale, while the credit ABS market has contracted significantly [5][32] - The performance of micro-loan ABS in terms of default rates has remained stable, with most projects meeting expectations and some performing better than predicted [20][22][24] Market Overview - The issuance of micro-loan ABS is primarily driven by trust companies and state-owned commercial banks, with a notable increase in participation from private banks [8][15] - As of July 2025, there are 299 active micro-loan ABS products with a total outstanding scale of 1852.33 billion, representing 5.58% of the total market [16][19] Default Performance - The cumulative default rate for public micro-loan ABS has remained stable, with the highest recorded rate at 2.81%, and most projects showing low default levels [20][22] - The actual performance of micro-loan ABS has generally aligned with expectations, with a median ratio of actual to predicted default rates at 0.81 [24] Circular Purchase Structure - The average circular purchase rate for selected micro-loan ABS products is 86.91%, with internet institutions showing a significantly higher rate of 99.17% [27] - The circular purchase structure effectively addresses maturity mismatches and enhances financing efficiency [27] Future Outlook - The ABN and exchange ABS markets are expected to remain the main varieties for micro-loan ABS issuance, with significant growth potential in the credit ABS market [32] - The overall performance of micro-loan ABS during the holding period is expected to remain consistent, with gradual improvements in risk-bearing capacity for the securities [32]

2025 年 NPL 产品存续期表现——发 行规模持续增长，回收进度存在波动 联合资信 结构一部 |宋 宇|李 爽|陈乐敏 2025 年 1－7 月，NPL 产品发行规模持续增长。存续期表现方面，纯信用 类 NPL 产品回收进度合理波动，含押品类 NPL 产品回款进度不确定性较 大；实际回收与预测回收偏离度随存续时间逐渐收敛；总体兑付情况良好， 兑付速度有所放缓。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、NPL 产品发行情况 1．不良资产支持证券产品发行规模持续增长 2016 年至 2025 年 7 月，银行间公募市场不良资产支持证券产品（以下简称"NPL 产品"）累计发行规模为 2865.08 亿元。2025 年 1－7 月，NPL 产品发行单数为 87 单， 同比增长 45.00%；NPL 产品发行规模为 399.77 亿元，同比增长 69.77%，发行单数与 发行规模呈现双增长态势。近年来商业银行 NPL 产品发行量逐年增加，详见图 1.1。 图 1.1 2016－2025 年 7 月 NPL 产品发行规模及单数（单位：亿元、单） 2．大型国有商业银行仍是市场主力 2025 年 1－7 月 ...

鲍威尔于杰克逊霍尔"最后演 讲"：为何市场读懂了降息，却 忽视了滞胀风险？ 联合资信 研究中心 | 最新美国 CPI 与 PPI 升温而就业放缓，滞胀阴影浮现。鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔 演讲承认经济放缓与关税推升通胀，但强调关税"一次性冲击"，为降息 铺路。市场解读分裂：股市狂欢于流动性预期，债市却异常平静——这背 后或是美财政部以关税收入压制利率的短期操作，扭曲了市场信号。这种 政策干预虽暂稳债市，却以压缩企业利润为代价，恐难持续。对中国而言， 美政策不确定性加剧，我更需坚持底线思维，以充裕的政策空间和扩大内 需应对变局，同时扩大开放把握机遇，激活香港金融市场、助力科技融资。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 在当前复杂多变的经济形势下，对美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上 的观点进行剖析，具有重要的现实意义。从最新公布的数据来看，美国经济滞胀风险 正在走高。7 月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.7%，连续数月维持在较高水 平，且核心 CPI 同比涨幅扩大至 3.1%，显示通胀压力顽固；生产者价格指数（PPI） 环比大涨 0.9%，三年新高，同比上涨 3.3%，反映企业生产成本上升。然 ...

一、消费金融 ABS 市场概况 1、消费金融 ABS 发行活跃 进入 2025 年以来，消费金融 ABS 新发市场延续了 2024 年以来的增长态势，发行单数和发行规 模同比增幅显著。2025 年 1－7 月，银行间债券市场和交易所市场共发行 331 单消费金融 ABS，同 比增长 63.86%；发行规模合计 2838.29 亿元，同比增长 76.66%。2025 年 1－7 月，消费金融 ABS 占 ABS 市场总发行规模的比重较去年年底进一步上升（增长了 8.99 个百分点至 25.90%）。 图 1 2020 年－2025 年 7 月国内消费金融 ABS 发行单数及其占比 图 2 2020 年－2025 年 7 月国内消费金融 ABS 发行规模及其占比 注：1．企业资产支持证券简称"交易所 ABS"；信贷资产支持证券简称"信贷 ABS"；资产支持票据简称"ABN"； 2．本次统计消费金融 ABS，主要包括在交易所发行的个人消费金融 ABS 以及银行间市场发行的个人消费金融 ABS 和信用卡分期 ABS，不包含对 小微企业的经营贷 ABS 数据来源：Wind，联合资信整理 从发行场所来看，2025 年 1 ...

Policy and Regulatory Framework - The revised "Regulations on the Payment of Funds to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" aims to address issues such as "difficulties in receivables recovery and prolonged cycles" for SMEs, enhancing legal protections for their rights[1] - The "Self-regulatory Rules on Due Diligence for Debt Asset Securitization" provide clear guidelines for due diligence, improving efficiency and protecting investors' rights[2] - The "Notice on Regulating Supply Chain Financial Services" focuses on standardizing supply chain financial services to better support SME financing[3] Market Performance and Trends - From January to July 2025, the accounts receivable ABS market saw 158 issuances, a 37.39% increase year-on-year, with a total issuance scale of CNY 1410.60 billion, up 25.71%[5] - The issuance scale of accounts receivable ABS accounted for 11.98% of the total asset securitization market, indicating a slight increase in market capacity[5] - The main issuance venue was the exchange market, which accounted for 80.53% of the total issuance scale[6] Asset Quality and Characteristics - Construction-related receivables dominate the underlying assets, making up 80.16% of the total[8] - The actual cash flow recovery for construction receivables may be affected by project progress and payment cycles, leading to potential delays[37] - Trade receivables show varied recovery characteristics, with stable cash flows from large state-owned enterprises, while consumer-related receivables may have higher risks due to weaker debtor profiles[38] Issuance Structure and Credit Enhancement - 39.11% of the accounts receivable ABS involved a revolving purchase structure, helping to address maturity mismatches[18] - 84.07% of the issuances included credit enhancement, primarily from high-rated entities, maintaining a low overall credit risk level[24] - The proportion of non-enhanced accounts receivable ABS increased to 15.93%, indicating a shift towards more self-reliant structures[27] Secondary Market Activity - The secondary market for accounts receivable ABS saw a transaction volume of CNY 2700.50 billion, a significant increase of 118.57% year-on-year, making it the largest trading category in the asset-backed securities market[32] - The turnover rate in the interbank market was 35.62%, reflecting higher trading activity compared to the exchange market's 17.96%[33]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable performance of the financing lease ABS market with good repayment conditions [2][8]. Core Insights - The financing lease ABS market has shown a positive trend in 2025, with an increase in issuance volume and a decline in issuance rates, reflecting strong support for the real economy and small and micro enterprises [7][39]. - The issuance of financing lease ABS reached 135.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.30%, while the overall asset-backed securities market saw a 22.47% increase [9][8]. - The report highlights the ongoing policy support for small and micro enterprises, which has led to a steady growth in the issuance scale of small micro lease ABS [6][39]. Policy Overview - In the first half of 2025, policies continued to encourage financing lease companies to support the real economy and small and micro enterprises [4]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised guidelines to enhance the efficiency of issuing corporate bonds and asset-backed securities [5]. - A joint announcement from multiple regulatory bodies emphasized measures to support financing for small and micro enterprises, focusing on increasing financing supply and reducing costs [6]. Market Performance - From January to July 2025, the financing lease ABS market saw a total issuance of 140 deals, with a total scale of 135.88 billion, marking a 9.38% increase in the number of deals and a 13.30% increase in scale compared to the previous year [9][8]. - The trading market remains the primary venue for financing lease ABS issuance, accounting for 91.63% of the total issuance scale [12]. - The issuance structure remains stable, with public lease ABS dominating the market [13]. Issuance Rates and Credit Quality - The average issuance rates for AAAsf and AA+sf rated securities were 2.35% and 3.42%, respectively, showing a decline of 46bps and 53bps year-on-year [24]. - The report notes that the asset quality of financing lease ABS has remained stable, with no downgrades in credit ratings during the period [36]. - The proportion of high-rated securities (AAAsf and AA+sf) remains high, accounting for 98.73% of the newly issued financing lease ABS [30]. Future Outlook - The financing lease ABS market is expected to continue expanding, driven by ongoing policy support and increasing financing needs from small and micro enterprises [39]. - The report anticipates that the issuance scale of specific field-marked financing lease ABS will grow, covering a broader range of industries [39]. - The market is likely to see a continued focus on supporting the real economy and promoting industrial upgrades [39].

2025 年融资租赁 ABS 存续期表现——融资租赁 ABS 市 场运行稳健，证券兑付情况良好 结构评级二部 本期作者：郭燕 刘书畅 一、融资租赁 ABS 相关政策 2025 年上半年，市场延续了 2024 年的政策基调，鼓励融资租赁公司服务实体经 济、支持中小微企业融资；资产证券化相关业务服务进一步规范。 （一） 资产证券化相关政策 2025 年 5 月，上海证券交易所修订形成了《上海证券交易所公司债券和资产支 持证券发行上市挂牌业务指南（2025 年 5 月修订）》，重点规范公司债券（含企业债 券）和资产支持证券发行上市挂牌业务流程，提升业务办理质效。 2025 年 5 月，上海证券交易所发布《关于试点公司债券续发行和资产支持证券 扩募业务有关事项的通知》，试点开展公司债券续发行和资产支持证券扩募发行相关 业务，提升债券发行效率及市场流动性。 相关政策内容如下表所示。 资料来源：联合资信整理 日期 发布主体 文件名称 主要内容 2025 年 5 月 上海证券 交易所 《上海证券交易所公司债券和资产支持证券发行上 市挂牌业务指南（2025 年 5 月修订）》 规范公司债券、资产支持证券发行、上市或挂牌 业务 ...

Group 1: Tariff Policy Characteristics - Trump's tariff policy exhibits a "country-specific differentiation and important goods overlay" dual-track feature, aiming to reshape bilateral trade mechanisms while addressing trade deficits[4] - The tariff rates imposed on the UK were set at 10%, the lowest tier, due to concessions made by the UK government on imports of US food and agricultural products[5] - The US has reached agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea for a 15% tariff increase, with the EU committing to invest $600 billion in the US and Japan investing $550 billion in various sectors[5] Group 2: Impact on Global Supply Chains - The tariff policy is expected to significantly disrupt global supply chains, with localization and regionalization becoming mainstream trends in supply chain restructuring[4] - The US is projected to maintain control over high-end supply chain segments, with China evolving into an indispensable "central node" in global supply chains[24] - The EU is anticipated to become a key recipient of mid-to-high-end technology supply chain transfers, while ASEAN and Latin America can leverage "friend-shoring" and "near-shoring" advantages[24] Group 3: Economic and Trade Implications - The US's trade deficit in categories like transportation equipment and machinery is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2024, prompting a focus on tariffs for semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles[10] - The cumulative tariff rate for Indian goods entering the US has reached 50%, the highest among current global tariffs, indicating a significant leverage point for negotiations[6] - The US's import volume is nearing $3.3 trillion in 2024, granting it substantial influence over global supply chain adjustments[18]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the cement industry, with expectations of continued pressure on demand and pricing, leading to a challenging environment for profitability [2][38]. Core Insights - The cement industry is experiencing weak demand due to ongoing adjustments in the real estate market, with a significant decline in new construction and investment [4][38]. - Despite a slight recovery in profitability in early 2025, the overall outlook remains bleak as prices have entered a downward trend since April 2025, exacerbated by increased competition and falling coal prices [2][15][38]. - Structural overcapacity in the cement industry persists, with slow progress in capacity reduction measures, leading to heightened competition and pressure on prices [2][4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Cement Industry Operations - The cement demand remains weak, with real estate development investment showing a negative growth rate of -11.20% in the first half of 2025, and new construction area down by 20.00% [4][5]. - Cement production in the first half of 2025 reached 815 million tons, the lowest since 2010, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.30% [5][7]. - The industry is facing significant overcapacity, with a utilization rate of approximately 50.8% for cement production [7]. 2. Cement Price Performance - Cement prices have been on a downward trend since April 2025, influenced by falling coal prices and increased competition, despite a brief recovery in early 2025 [9][10]. - The inventory levels have fluctuated, with a notable increase in the inventory ratio following the end of seasonal production cuts [10][14]. 3. Industry Profitability - In the first quarter of 2025, the number of loss-making cement companies decreased, with total revenue for major listed companies down by 16.64% year-on-year, but losses reduced by 91.03% [15][31]. - The overall profitability of the cement industry is expected to remain under pressure, with continued losses anticipated if effective supply control measures are not implemented [15][38]. 4. Policy Dynamics - The government continues to enforce structural adjustments in the cement industry, including capacity replacement policies and seasonal production cuts to address supply-demand imbalances [17][21]. - New policies have been introduced to enhance the effectiveness of production cuts and to ensure compliance among cement producers [21][22]. 5. Bond Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the cement industry saw an increase in bond issuance, with a total of 30 bonds issued amounting to 31.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.28% [26][27]. - The majority of bond issuers are high-credit-rated state-owned enterprises, indicating a controlled credit risk environment [26][38].

Group 1: Economic Context - The revision of the Price Law is the first major update in 27 years, addressing the "increase in production without profit" dilemma and internal competition issues[5] - China's Producer Price Index (PPI) has experienced negative growth for 33 consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% in June 2025, marking a new low in this negative growth cycle[7] - Industrial value-added increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, yet industrial profits fell by 1.8% year-on-year, highlighting the paradox of increased production without corresponding profits[6] Group 2: Legislative Changes - The Price Law revision expands the definition of "below-cost pricing" to include digital economy practices, enhancing the legal framework against unfair competition[6] - The revision raises the maximum fines for violations from 5,000 yuan to 50,000 yuan, significantly increasing the deterrent effect on large enterprises[17] - New regulations will cover algorithmic manipulation and digital pricing issues, marking a significant step in addressing the challenges posed by the digital economy[17] Group 3: Market Implications - The revision is expected to lead to a restructuring of industries, promoting a shift from "price wars" to "innovation wars," ultimately enhancing long-term economic competitiveness[18] - Capital markets are likely to see a reallocation of funds, with a shift from defensive sectors to cyclical and anti-involution sectors, as evidenced by rising prices in commodities and stocks in related industries[20] - The anticipated stabilization of PPI and recovery of profit margins may occur faster than expected, particularly benefiting midstream manufacturing sectors[18]