2025 年小微贷款 ABS 回顾与 展望——发行市场稳增可期， 资产信用基本面依然稳固 联合资信 结构评级四部 |华 蕊 |刘书畅 2025 年小微贷款 ABS 市场保持增长活力，政策驱动下 ABN 细分市场热 度持续攀升，多家市场主体加速布局并崭露头角。面对持续低利率时代下 的"资产荒"压力，市场正加速迈入主动拥抱优质底层资产的新阶段。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、小微贷款 ABS 市场发行情况 （一）ABN 市场持续带动小微贷款 ABS 双增长 2025 年小微贷款 ABS 整体发行单数和规模较去年小幅增长，市场占比保持稳定。 2025 年，全市场共发行 268 单小微贷款 ABS1，同比增长 7.20%；发行规模合计 2698.13 亿元，同比增长 14.05%，小微贷款 ABS 占资产支持证券发行总规模2的比重为 11.85%， 与去年基本持平。 分市场来看，小微贷款 ABS 发行情况有所分化。2025 年小微贷款 ABN 市场受 益于交易商协会对普惠金融领域的持续支持，发行势头依旧强劲，全年共发行 125 单 产品，合计 1082.30 亿元，分别同比增长 60.26%和 ...

高市早苗众议院获得压倒性胜利，令 日本政局的右翼民粹色彩显著上升 联合资信 主权部 | 程泽宇 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 高市早苗政治联盟在众议院选举中获得压倒性胜利，反映出自民党支持者对"强人政治" 的期待，令日本政局的右翼民粹色彩显著上升 高市早苗政府继续将扩张性财政政策视为提振内需、经济复苏的核心手段，日本政府未来 面临利息支出激增与财政可持续性的严峻考验，市场担忧政府的扩张性财政政策可能加剧 债务负担，日本国债面临被进一步抛售的风险 虽然 2025 年日本经济温和复苏，但受关税政策、通胀走高以及央行加息等因素影响，预 计 2026 年日本经济将保持低速增长且日元汇率相应承压 当地时间 2026 年 2 月 9 日，日本第 51 届众议院选举结果出炉，自民党获得 316 个议席，日本维新会获得 36 个议席，由自民党和日本维新会组成的执政联盟获得超 过半数议席，日本首相高市早苗将继续执政。其中，自民党单独获得议席已经超过法 定议席的三分之二，为二战以来首次单一政党在日本政坛中获得绝对控制权，这一结 果为日本现任政府推行其经济及政治政策扫清了障碍。 高市早苗政治联盟在众议院选举中获 ...

Economic Overview - By the end of January 2026, all 31 provinces in China had released their 2025 economic data, with GDP rankings remaining stable except for Chongqing surpassing Liaoning[4] - In 2025, the GDP growth rate for Tibet led the nation, while 18 provinces exceeded the national average growth rate of 5.0%, a decrease of 3 from 2024[4] Eastern Region - The eastern region accounted for over 50% of the national GDP, with Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong remaining the top three provinces; Shandong's GDP surpassed 10 trillion for the first time[5] - Guangdong's GDP represented over 10% of the national total, with a new economy value-added ratio of 26.7% and high-tech manufacturing accounting for 34.7% of industrial output[6] Central Region - The central region's total economic output reached 29.91 trillion, with Henan, Hubei, and Anhui leading in growth rates of 5.6%, 5.5%, and 5.5% respectively[10] - In 2025, Henan's strategic emerging industries accounted for over 25% of industrial value-added, significantly contributing to economic stability[10] Western Region - The western region saw most provinces exceed the national average growth rate, with Tibet's growth rate at the top and its GDP surpassing 300 billion for the first time[14] - Gansu's industrial output increased by 9.5%, driven by a 19.5% growth in the non-ferrous metal smelting industry, benefiting from new industry demands[14] Northeast Region - The Northeast region, led by Liaoning, faced significant challenges with a notable decline in economic growth, as it was surpassed by Chongqing in GDP ranking[15] - Liaoning's industrial output growth was only 0.6%, far below the national average of 5.9%, indicating difficulties in transitioning traditional industries[15]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the port industry, with a focus on infrastructure and domestic demand supporting the industry fundamentals [7][8]. Core Insights - The growth rate of cargo and container throughput in Chinese ports is slowing down, influenced by GDP and import-export growth deceleration. Coastal ports dominate in terms of throughput, with significant differentiation in growth rates among major ports [8][9]. - Since 2018, investment in inland waterway transportation has consistently exceeded that of coastal ports, leading to structural overcapacity in coastal ports. However, there remains a demand for terminal upgrades, optimization of port layouts, and channel construction, with a clear trend towards larger and more specialized port berths [8][9]. - The overall revenue of sampled port enterprises is steadily increasing, with strong operational cash flow capabilities. Future capital expenditures are expected to remain substantial due to increased financing driven by port-related project investments [8][9]. - The report anticipates that global economic growth will remain low, with uncertainties surrounding trade policies potentially impacting China's foreign trade. However, domestic demand is expected to expand, providing some support for port throughput [8][9]. Industry Overview Macroeconomic Environment - In 2025, China's economy is projected to stabilize, with domestic demand expected to support cargo throughput at ports. The economic policies are characterized by a multi-dimensional collaborative approach, focusing on stabilizing growth and enhancing domestic consumption [9][10]. - The port industry is highly sensitive to macroeconomic cycles, with the performance of cargo and container throughput closely linked to economic conditions and foreign trade developments [10][11]. Industry Policies and Regulatory Environment - The government has introduced various policies to guide the development of smart, green, safe, and efficient ports, aiming to enhance the competitive capabilities of ports through a market-oriented pricing system [11][12]. - Recent policies emphasize the integration of rail-water transport and the construction of a modern comprehensive transportation system, with significant investments expected in port infrastructure [11][12]. Industry Operating Conditions - The throughput growth of Chinese ports has shown signs of slowing down, with a notable differentiation in growth rates among major coastal ports. In 2024, the total cargo throughput reached 1,759.5 million tons, growing by 3.7% [16][20]. - Container throughput growth has also slowed, with a total of 33.2 million TEUs in 2024, reflecting a 7.0% increase [17][20]. Financial Performance - Sampled port enterprises have shown steady revenue growth, with total revenue reaching 643.36 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, maintaining a stable operational performance [34][36]. - The cash flow from operating activities has been strong, with a cash income ratio exceeding 100%, indicating that cash flow can meet capital expenditure needs [36][39]. Debt Levels - The total debt of sampled port enterprises has increased, with a total debt of 1,162.86 billion yuan by September 2025, primarily for new terminal construction and upgrades [41][43]. - The short-term debt ratio is moderate, with a significant portion of financing coming from bank loans and bond issuances [41][43]. Debt Repayment Capacity - Most sampled port enterprises face manageable short-term repayment pressures, with strong long-term repayment capabilities. However, some enterprises have heavier debt burdens and historical personnel liabilities that require attention [44][45]. Bond Market Performance - The report notes a decrease in bond issuance rates for port enterprises, with a total of 180 bonds issued in 2025, reflecting a 7.57% increase in issuance scale [48][49].

Regulatory Framework - In 2023, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) established a compliance framework for revenue recognition in trade businesses, introducing the "Ten Prohibitions" to central enterprises[3] - By 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges will extend regulatory scrutiny to bond-issuing companies, creating a comprehensive compliance framework[3] Compliance Logic - Revenue recognition compliance in trade businesses must adhere to three key principles: authenticity of physical flow, absence of specific interests between upstream and downstream parties, and the application of the "substance over form" principle[5] - The distinction between gross and net methods hinges on the control of goods and the assumption of core risks, with gross method indicating primary responsibility and net method indicating agency[13] Financial Impact - Transitioning from gross to net method significantly reduces reported revenue, potentially by up to 90%, while improving gross profit margins, reflecting a more accurate operational reality[23] - The balance sheet will show a substantial decrease in inventory and accounts receivable, optimizing asset structure and enhancing the reliability of financial ratios[24] Misuse Risks - Two primary misuse risks include "instant control" trades, where companies temporarily hold ownership without assuming core responsibilities, and discrepancies between contract terms and actual business substance[19][21] - Regulatory warnings have been issued to companies that misapply revenue recognition methods, leading to significant revenue adjustments in some cases, such as a reduction of CNY 2.34 billion in reported revenue for one company[20] Practical Recommendations - Companies should enhance internal controls covering the entire trade process, ensuring clear responsibilities for revenue recognition[30] - Implementing intelligent systems for matching contracts, logistics, and financial transactions can mitigate operational risks and ensure compliance[30]

Policy Support - In 2025, various government levels are enhancing policies to support the knowledge property financial ecosystem, focusing on optimizing the entire financing chain and promoting value transformation through securitization and pledge financing[4] - National policies aim to standardize and scale the knowledge property ABS market, with specific measures introduced in February and March 2025 to encourage asset securitization and improve market pricing mechanisms[5][6] Market Performance - In 2025, the issuance of knowledge property securitization products reached 60 transactions, with a total issuance scale of 8.395 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.37%[12] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange remains the primary venue for knowledge property ABS, accounting for 80% of the total number of issuances and 84.03% of the total issuance scale[12] Asset Types and Business Models - The underlying assets for knowledge property ABS are diversifying, with a significant increase in products related to strategic industries such as biomedicine, artificial intelligence, and new energy[15] - The predominant business model for knowledge property securitization remains the pledge model, with 57 transactions amounting to 8.170 billion yuan, representing 97.32% of the total issuance[18] Risk and Credit Enhancement - The weighted average issuance interest rate for priority securities in 2025 was 2.17%, with a spread of 0.27% compared to similar market products[22][23] - Internal and external credit enhancement measures are primarily used to ensure timely repayment, with 30 transactions employing these methods, amounting to 4.648 billion yuan[24] Future Trends - The knowledge property ABS market is expected to maintain steady growth, driven by strong demand for underlying assets and ongoing policy support, with a focus on diversifying asset types to include data rights and other innovative intellectual properties[32][34] - Core regions like Shenzhen and Hangzhou are leading the market, while midwestern areas are gradually increasing their participation, indicating a trend towards regional collaboration and cross-border cooperation in knowledge property ABS[35]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the home appliance industry, with a focus on credit risk assessment for 2026 [7] Core Insights - The home appliance industry in China experienced a historical high in domestic sales in 2025, driven by government policies and consumer demand, although growth is expected to slow down due to high base effects and market saturation [10][20] - The export of home appliances faced challenges in 2025, with total export value and quantity declining compared to the previous year, influenced by high base effects and uncertain trade environments [10][22] - The industry is undergoing structural changes, with growth driven by smart, green, and high-end product upgrades, as well as deeper market penetration [10][11] Industry Overview - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, supported by domestic demand and government policies [11] - The retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment reached 1.16949 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.0% [20] - The home appliance market is characterized by a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven dynamics, with a notable impact from the "old-for-new" subsidy policies [10][20] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The government continued to enhance the "old-for-new" subsidy policy in 2025, expanding the scope and funding to stimulate home appliance consumption [15][16] - The 2026 policy will maintain support for the "old-for-new" program, focusing on energy-efficient products and expanding the range of supported items [17] Industry Performance - The home appliance sector showed resilience in 2025, with sample companies reporting revenue growth of 7.35% and profit growth of 10.42% in the first three quarters [44] - The industry is experiencing a structural differentiation in performance, with leading brands benefiting from government policies and market dynamics [38] Competitive Landscape - The home appliance industry is highly competitive, with leading companies like Midea, Haier, and Gree dominating the market, accounting for a significant share of total revenue [38][41] - The market is increasingly concentrated, with the top ten companies accounting for approximately 82.38% of the industry's revenue [38] Financial Condition - The sample companies in the home appliance industry maintain a low leverage level, with a median debt-to-asset ratio of 43.29% as of September 2025 [49] - Profitability indicators show a decline in gross margin to 21.61% in the first three quarters of 2025, compared to 23.15% for the previous year [45]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints In 2025, driven by multiple policy orientations and market demands such as local government debt resolution, state - owned asset revitalization, and green finance development, the toll revenue right ABS market showed characteristics of "increasing number of issuances, shrinking scale, continuous structural optimization, and multi - point breakthroughs in innovation". The inter - bank market was the core issuance channel, and subsidy income, shantytown renovation/affordable housing, and livelihood public utility assets dominated the market. The pattern of high - rating and high - priority ratios was further consolidated, and specific labels and first - of - its - kind products were the highlights of innovation [2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Primary Market Operation - **Issuance Overview**: - The number of issuances increased to 89, while the issuance scale was 87.242 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.62%. The number of issuances increased due to the policy of "exchanging stock for increment" and the need to include more small - scale operating assets in securitization. The scale decreased because of stricter debt control, higher compliance requirements, and reduced high - quality assets. The market is shifting towards "structural optimization and refined operation" [5]. - The inter - bank market and the Shanghai Stock Exchange were the main issuance and trading venues, with the inter - bank market accounting for 54.02% of the issuance scale. ABCP's issuance scale decreased significantly, mainly due to the uncertainty of subsidy funds and cash flows and the substitution effect of other financing channels [7]. - The structure of underlying assets was diversified, with subsidy income assets accounting for the highest proportion of 42.06%. The issuance scale of subsidy income, highway bridges, and gas supply assets declined, while that of livelihood public utility and shantytown renovation/affordable housing assets increased. Investor preference shifted to "small - volume, strong - credit - enhancement" projects [10]. - The concentration of leading institutions increased. The top 3, 5, and 10 originators accounted for 38.83%, 46.04%, and 56.57% of the issuance scale respectively. This was due to the regulatory environment and the advantages of large - scale central and local state - owned enterprises [14]. - AAAsf - rated products dominated the market, with a scale of 81.954 billion yuan, accounting for 93.94%. The average proportion of priority securities was 95.45%, which met the needs of both supply and demand sides [17]. - There were rich and diverse specific labels. "Green" was the mainstream single - label, and combined labels such as "green + carbon neutrality" became highlights, helping issuers access policy benefits [19]. - Five first - of - its - kind products were issued, focusing on new types of underlying assets such as raw water supply, public rental housing operation and maintenance fees, and industrial steam. These products achieved lower financing costs and reflected the continuous release of market innovation momentum [22]. - **Interest Rate Analysis**: - Fixed - rate products accounted for 63.89% of the issuance scale, and progressive - rate products accounted for 36.11%, indicating the market's ability to adapt to different asset characteristics and investment preferences [24]. - The issuance interest rate range was stable, between 1.47% and 3.53%, with an average of about 2.33%. The issuance spread was mainly concentrated in the (50, 100]bp range, narrowing slightly compared with 2024, reflecting market recognition of high - rating products [25][29]. - **Performance of Outstanding Securities**: - The number and scale of outstanding securities increased. As of the end of 2025, there were 438 outstanding products, and the market expanded steadily [31]. - The credit performance during the outstanding period was stable, with no records of extension, rating upgrade, or downgrade, indicating controllable credit risks [32]. 3.2 Secondary Market Trading - **Increased Trading Volume and Number of Transactions**: In 2025, the secondary - market trading volume of toll revenue right asset - backed securitization products was 10.0119 billion yuan, with 214 transactions, increasing by 15.02% and 22.29% year - on - year respectively. The active secondary - market performance was related to the increase in primary - market supply and stable credit performance [34]. - **Trading Structure Closely Linked to the Primary Market**: - Shantytown renovation/affordable housing and subsidy income products led the trading. The number of shantytown renovation/affordable housing ABS transactions was 44, ranking first, and the trading volumes of subsidy income and shantytown renovation/affordable housing ABS were 26.178 billion yuan and 22.532 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 48.66% in total [36]. - Products with a term of 5 - 10 years accounted for the highest proportion, with a trading volume of 34.115 billion yuan, accounting for 34.07%. Products within 1 year (including 1 year) accounted for 26.85% [38]. - Exchange - traded ABS was the main trading product, with 165 transactions and a trading volume of 67.441 billion yuan, an increase of 7.76% year - on - year. The Shanghai Stock Exchange was the core trading venue, with a trading volume of 53.731 billion yuan, accounting for 53.67% [40]. - **High - Rating Priority - Tier Products Dominated the Trading**: In 2025, the trading volumes of priority - tier, mezzanine - tier, and sub - tier securities accounted for 97.34%, 2.30%, and 0.36% respectively. The A1 - tier trading volume was 65.521 billion yuan, accounting for 65.44%. AAAsf - rated securities accounted for more than 90% of the trading volume [42][44]. - **Products with Short Transaction Days Had Better Liquidity**: Products with transaction days within 10 days had a trading volume of 64.922 billion yuan, accounting for 64.84%, and mainly included subsidy income ABS. Products with transaction days exceeding 40 days were all AAAsf - rated heating and shantytown renovation/affordable housing projects, showing a "low - liquidity + high - credit" liquidity premium [46]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - **Core Driving Factors in 2025**: - Policy Orientation: Policies supported debt resolution and asset revitalization through asset securitization, focusing on areas such as urban renewal, municipal utilities, and affordable housing, and strengthening the management of government subsidy assets. The release of relevant regulations provided a compliance basis and institutional guarantee for the market [47]. - Asset Innovation: First - of - its - kind products broke through the traditional boundaries of underlying assets, such as raw water supply, public rental housing operation and maintenance fees, and industrial steam. These products met policy requirements and were favored by institutional investors, with some achieving record - low interest rates [50]. - **Future Market Outlook**: - The market scale is expected to expand steadily, and policy - supported areas such as urban renewal, affordable rental housing, and new - energy subsidies may become the main growth points [51]. - Product structure and label innovation will be deepened. Progressive interest rates and credit enhancement measures will be more widely used, and combined label products will increase, helping issuers reduce financing costs [52]. - Data asset empowerment will open up new growth opportunities. The successful issuance of the first data - asset - empowered toll revenue right ABS in 2025 marked the beginning of the integration of data elements and traditional toll revenue rights. In the future, it may extend to new fields, providing long - term growth momentum for the market [53].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Chinese private equity market has entered a deep adjustment period since reaching a historical peak in 2021, with fundraising difficulties and a decline in scale expected to recover by 2025 as market confidence gradually rebounds[4] - The structure of the LP market has fundamentally changed, with government, industrial, and financial institution LPs forming the main support for the private equity market[5] - By 2024, the total disclosed subscription amount from LPs in new RMB funds exceeded 1.34 trillion RMB, with government funds contributing nearly 600 billion RMB, accounting for 44.4% of the total[7] Group 2: LP Types and Contributions - Government LPs are the dominant force, focusing on industrial cultivation and regional economic upgrades, with a significant role in guiding social capital towards strategic emerging industries[11] - Industrial LPs, including listed companies and large enterprises, contributed over 280 billion RMB in 2024, representing 20.9% of total contributions, but saw a decline of 5.8 percentage points compared to 2023[7] - Financial institution LPs, including insurance and banks, increased their contributions to over 210 billion RMB, with a rise of 4.8 percentage points from 2023, highlighting their growing role in the market[7] Group 3: Policy Environment - The policy framework aims to optimize the entire fundraising and investment process, encouraging long-term capital to enter the private equity market[17] - Recent policies have simplified fundraising procedures and lowered thresholds, enhancing fundraising efficiency and stability in the long-term capital supply[17] - The establishment of the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund, with a fiscal contribution of 100 billion RMB, aims to create a fund scale exceeding one trillion RMB and focus on early-stage investments[13] Group 4: Future Trends - The expansion of patient capital is expected to be a core trend in the future development of the LP ecosystem in China's private equity market, driven by systematic and market-oriented policy guidance[19] - Local and national government guidance funds are transitioning from scale expansion to quality improvement, fostering a multi-layered and diversified local patient capital supply system[19]

Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical conflicts are expected to remain the biggest risk in 2026, with the U.S. focusing on Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere and increasing geopolitical tensions in Latin America and the Arctic[11] - The global geopolitical risk index is hovering around 140, indicating a second structural peak since the post-9/11 era, driven by systemic strategic competition among major powers[11] - The U.S. military operation against Venezuela's President Maduro marks a shift in U.S. strategy towards focusing on regional control of strategic resources[13][14] Economic Outlook - The global economy is projected to grow at around 3.0% in 2026, with developed economies expected to grow at approximately 1.6% and emerging economies at about 4.0%[31] - The U.S. economy is anticipated to maintain a growth rate of around 2%, supported by fiscal policies and technological advancements, despite facing structural challenges in the labor market[32] - The EU's economic growth is expected to remain sluggish at about 1.4%, hindered by high core inflation and weak performance in key economies like Germany and France[34] Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy in 2026, with potential rate cuts of 2-3 times, influenced by political pressures and economic conditions[20][23] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain a "middle strategy" in its monetary policy, balancing between controlling inflation and stimulating economic growth, with rates around 2%[24][26] - The Bank of Japan is projected to continue its gradual rate hikes, potentially reaching around 1% by 2026, amid challenges from fiscal policies and inflationary pressures[27][28] Fiscal Policies - Expansionary fiscal policies are expected to dominate globally, with developed economies' fiscal deficit rates around 5.0% and emerging economies around 6.0%[38][40] - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to remain high at approximately 7.5%, driven by the "Big and Beautiful Act" aimed at stimulating economic activity[38] - Japan's fiscal deficit is expected to expand to around 2.0%, as the government continues to prioritize fiscal expansion to boost domestic demand[40]