2025 年融资租赁 ABS 市场分 析——市场稳健主体扩容，政 策赋能结构优化 联合资信 结构评级 |郭 燕 |陈蕙珺 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、融资租赁 ABS 相关政策汇总 2025 年，多部门协同发力，围绕实体经济重点领域，出台多项鼓励政策；支持 中小微企业融资，推动租赁行业回归"融资+融物"本源，赋能实体经济；资产证券 化业务进一步规范。 （一）资产证券化相关政策 2025 年 3 月，中国证券投资基金业协会发布《债权类资产证券化业务尽职调查 工作细则》，就业务参与方、基础资产、现金流及交易结构的尽职调查关注点提出了 全面、明确的要求，强化了风险控制要求。 2025 年 5 月，上海证券交易所修订形成了《上海证券交易所公司债券和资产支 持证券发行上市挂牌业务指南（2025 年 5 月修订）》，规范公司债券、资产支持证券 发行、上市或挂牌业务服务，优化发行人、计划管理人和承销机构业务办理机制；同 月，上海证券交易所发布《关于试点公司债券续发行和资产支持证券扩募业务有关事 项的通知》，试点开展公司债券续发行和资产支持证券扩募发行业务，在材料准备、 发行上市流程、中介机构职责、 ...

发行规模创新高 化债步入新阶段 ——2025 年地方政府债券市场回顾及展望 2025.12 1 发行规模创新高 化债步入新阶段 ——2025 年地方政府债券市场回顾及展望 安排、比上年提高 1个百分点，赤字规模 5.66万亿元、比上年增加 1.6万亿元。 二是安排更大规模的政府债券，为稳增长、调结构提供更多支撑；拟发行超长 期特别国债 1.3 万亿元、比上年增加 3000 亿元，拟发行特别国债 5000 亿元（支 持国有大行补充核心一级资本）；新增地方政府专项债券限额 4.4万亿元、比上 年增加 5000 亿元，重点用于投资建设、土地收储和收购存量商品房、消化地方 政府拖欠企业账款等；2025 年合计新增政府债务总规模 11.86 万亿元、比上年 增加 2.9万亿元，财政支出强度明显加大。根据中央经济工作会议部署，明年我 国继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总 量。 在债券发行和使用方面，2025 年 6 月，《国务院关于 2024 年中央决算的报 告》提出尽早发行和使用超长期特别国债、专项债券等，发挥财政资金引导和 带动效应，支持做好"两重""两新"等工作。10月 14日，20 ...

Policy Impact - The implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" policy will provide clear guidance and development opportunities for the computing power industry chain[4] - In the short term, the policy is expected to stimulate market confidence and direct funds towards computing infrastructure, increasing demand for computing hardware and intelligent computing center construction[5] - In the long term, the policy aims to address structural imbalances, core technology bottlenecks, and insufficient application scenarios in the computing power industry[15] Current Market Analysis - As of September 2025, the total scale of computing power centers in China has grown from 5.2 million racks to 12.5 million racks, with an annual growth rate of 30%[6] - There is a structural imbalance in the computing power market, with general computing power being relatively surplus while intelligent computing power is in short supply[6] - The geographical mismatch in computing power resources is evident, with high demand in the eastern regions and underutilization in the western regions[7] Core Technology Challenges - Domestic manufacturers hold a low market share in high-end AI training chips, with major markets dominated by foreign companies like NVIDIA and AMD[8] - The software ecosystem is monopolized by international standards like CUDA, creating barriers for domestic chip manufacturers to gain market acceptance[9] Application and Development Opportunities - The policy encourages the construction of high-level intelligent computing facilities and the deployment of computing resources in industrial scenarios, which will benefit related enterprises[5] - The expected market expansion will create a trillion-level incremental market as computing demand shifts from the internet to broader industrial applications[15] - The policy will promote the development of domestic high-end computing hardware and software ecosystems, enhancing the competitiveness of the computing power industry[13][14]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The issuance of the "AI + Manufacturing" action plan aligns with global industrial competition and domestic manufacturing transformation needs, aiming to empower the manufacturing sector with AI technology and establish a new quality productivity base [2][4] - The plan emphasizes the integration of AI into manufacturing processes, which is seen as a critical driver for enhancing China's competitive advantage in core technologies and industrial scale [4][10] - The report outlines a comprehensive development system that includes technical support, scenario empowerment, product innovation, ecological activation, and safety assurance [7][9] Summary by Sections Background and Core Positioning - The deep integration of AI and manufacturing is essential for reshaping industrial advantages and seizing development opportunities amid global competition [4] - The plan aims to accelerate the application of AI in manufacturing, addressing the long-standing issues of "large but not strong" in China's manufacturing sector [4][6] Key Policy Interpretations - The action plan focuses on precise implementation and deep advancement from "AI+" to "manufacturing empowerment," targeting specific sectors and processes within the manufacturing industry [5][6] - It sets a goal for China to achieve reliable supply of key AI technologies and maintain a leading position in industrial scale and empowerment levels by 2027 [6][10] Core Measures - The report identifies five core measures to build a comprehensive development system, including: - **Innovation Foundation**: Establishing a full-chain technical support system for AI in manufacturing [7] - **Intelligent Upgrade**: Promoting deep empowerment of AI across all processes and industries [8] - **Product Breakthrough**: Encouraging the iteration and upgrade of intelligent equipment and new business models [8] - **Ecological Cultivation**: Activating collaborative innovation among market entities [9] - **Safety Assurance**: Building a multi-dimensional safety protection system [9] Practical Implications - The action plan addresses the mismatch between computing power supply and manufacturing demand, emphasizing the need for practical applications of AI technologies [10] - It aims to facilitate a fundamental shift in manufacturing from factor-driven to innovation-driven growth, enhancing quality and efficiency [10][13] Challenges and Outlook - The report acknowledges challenges in the deep integration of AI and manufacturing, including performance limitations of industrial models and data fragmentation [11][12] - It anticipates that by 2027, 500 typical application scenarios will be established, leading to scalable implementations in key areas [13]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the commercial real estate sector in China, highlighting significant inventory pressure and credit risks for certain companies [2]. Core Insights - The commercial real estate market in China has experienced severe inventory pressure compared to the residential market, with the inventory multiple for commercial properties exceeding 12 times as of November 2025, indicating a significant imbalance in supply and demand [5][7]. - The report emphasizes the need for a transformation in commercial real estate companies towards lower leverage, specialization, and differentiation, particularly for those with high asset constraints and non-core area investments [2]. - The recovery of the retail property market is supported by the resilience of consumer spending in China, while the office market faces substantial challenges due to oversupply and prolonged inventory adjustments [2][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Inventory Pressure in Commercial Real Estate - The inventory multiple for commercial properties has been on the rise, reaching over 12 times by November 2025, compared to residential properties which have also seen an increase to nearly 7 times [5][7]. - The office sector specifically shows a troubling inventory multiple nearing 15 times, indicating a significant oversupply situation [11]. 2. Price Dynamics and Supply-Demand Balance - The report discusses how asset prices in cities like Beijing and Shanghai have deviated from fundamentals, leading to high inventory multiples, while cities like Chongqing have maintained more stable prices and inventory levels [12][21]. - The historical context of Japan's real estate bubble is referenced, drawing parallels to the current situation in China, where rapid price increases have led to significant market imbalances [22][23]. 3. Recovery Path for Commercial Real Estate - The report outlines that the recovery of the commercial real estate market in China will require a prolonged period of inventory reduction and supply control, similar to Japan's experience post-bubble [29][41]. - It highlights that while Japan's retail market faced a prolonged downturn, China's retail sector shows signs of resilience, with consumer spending still holding up despite challenges [30][37]. 4. Corporate Strategies and Market Dynamics - The report notes that many residential developers have ventured into commercial real estate, leading to a mixed performance in the sector as companies face pressures to adapt to changing market conditions [53]. - It emphasizes the importance of learning from Japan's real estate recovery strategies, particularly the role of financial instruments like J-REITs in stabilizing the market [67].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The new regulations for government investment funds aim to promote compliance transformation and credit differentiation among urban investment enterprises [4][5] - The implementation of the new regulations is seen as a continuation and deepening of previous policies, addressing issues in the development of government investment funds and providing opportunities and challenges for urban investment enterprises [5][6] Summary by Sections New Regulations' Core Content and Intent - The "Work Method" focuses on "layout planning and investment control," transforming previous principles into executable systems [6] - The "Evaluation Method" establishes a comprehensive evaluation system with 13 indicators across three dimensions: policy compliance, productivity layout optimization, and policy execution capability [6][7] - The new regulations create a full-chain management system for government investment fund direction, enhancing fund efficiency and promoting high-quality development [6][7] Impact on Urban Investment Enterprises - Urban investment enterprises will participate in government investment funds in a more standardized and market-oriented manner, making decisions based on their financial status and management capabilities [12] - The new regulations present both opportunities and challenges for urban investment enterprises, as they align with government investment fund evaluation indicators and require enhanced professional investment and compliance management capabilities [13] - The new regulations may lead to further credit differentiation among urban investment enterprises, favoring those in regions with strong industrial foundations and financial resources [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but emphasizes the strategic importance of AI in manufacturing and its potential to enhance competitiveness on a global scale [4][10]. Core Insights - The issuance of the "AI + Manufacturing" action plan aligns with global industrial competition and domestic manufacturing transformation needs, aiming to empower manufacturing through AI technology [2][4]. - The plan focuses on creating a comprehensive development system that includes technology support, scenario empowerment, product innovation, ecosystem activation, and security assurance [7][10]. - By 2027, the plan aims for China's AI core technologies to achieve reliable supply, with the industry scale and empowerment level ranking among the world's top [6][13]. Summary by Sections Background and Core Positioning - The deep integration of AI and manufacturing is essential for reshaping industrial advantages and seizing development opportunities amid global competition [4]. - The plan is a response to the urgent need for China's manufacturing sector to upgrade and transition from scale expansion to quality and efficiency [4][5]. Key Policy Interpretations - The plan introduces five core measures to build a comprehensive development system, focusing on technology support, scenario empowerment, product innovation, ecosystem activation, and security assurance [7][9]. - It emphasizes the need for a dual-cycle empowerment system that connects technology supply and industrial application, fostering a collaborative ecosystem [6][10]. Challenges and Outlook - The report identifies challenges such as the need for real-time response capabilities in industrial models and the fragmentation of industrial data, which hinders model training accuracy [11][12]. - In the short term (1-2 years), the manufacturing sector is expected to enter a phase of benchmark leadership, with 500 typical application scenarios becoming replicable and scalable [13]. - In the long term, the AI-driven innovation ecosystem is projected to enhance China's global competitiveness in core technologies and industry scale, leading the global manufacturing sector towards intelligent transformation [13].

Policy Overview - The central bank's structural monetary policy focuses on "interest rate cuts and expansion" targeting agriculture, small enterprises, private businesses, and technological innovation, without implementing total "reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts or interest rate reductions" for now[4] - The recent policy shift indicates a transition from "leading the market curve" to "synchronizing with the market," reflecting a more precise and coordinated monetary approach[4] Monetary Policy Details - The central bank lowered the re-lending and re-discount rates by 25 basis points (BP), with the one-year re-lending rate now at 1.25%[4] - An additional 500 billion yuan in re-lending for agriculture and small enterprises has been allocated, with a 1 trillion yuan re-lending specifically for private enterprises[4] - The re-lending quota for technological innovation and transformation has been increased by 400 billion yuan, and a combined risk-sharing tool for technological innovation and private enterprise bonds has been established with a total re-lending quota of 200 billion yuan[4] Economic Context - Since the implementation of previous policies, domestic inflation has shown a mild recovery, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) declining by 1.9%[5] - Exports achieved a year-on-year growth of 5.5% in 2025 despite external challenges, indicating sustained competitiveness[5] - The Hang Seng Index led global markets, while the Shanghai Composite Index reached 4,100 points on January 15, 2026, highlighting improved market confidence[5] Future Outlook - The central bank emphasizes that the space for RRR cuts is greater than for interest rate reductions, with an increased focus on government bond operations to manage liquidity[6] - The absence of specific policies for the real estate market suggests that future support will likely rely more on fiscal measures rather than monetary policy, such as interest subsidies and reduced transaction costs[7] - Overall, the structural monetary policy reflects a balance between stabilizing growth, mitigating risks, and promoting transformation amid ongoing economic challenges[7]

Financial Overview - Total assets of local financial holding companies are projected to grow from CNY 84,530.60 million at the end of 2023 to CNY 108,296.23 million by June 2025, representing an increase of approximately 28.3%[2] - Total profit is expected to rise from CNY 1,158.03 million in 2023 to CNY 698.61 million by June 2025, indicating a decline in profitability[2] - The net profit is forecasted to decrease from CNY 970.31 million in 2023 to CNY 573.61 million by June 2025, reflecting a significant drop in earnings[2] Concentration Ratios - The asset concentration ratio (CR5) is expected to increase from 42.46% at the end of 2023 to 46.15% by June 2025, indicating a trend towards asset concentration among the top five firms[1] - The profit concentration ratio (CR10) is projected to rise from 60.98% in 2023 to 63.88% by June 2025, showing that profit generation is becoming increasingly concentrated among the top ten firms[1] Regulatory Environment - The financial regulatory framework has deepened since 2024, focusing on compliance and risk prevention, which has increased management costs and governance challenges for local financial holding companies[6] - The regulatory trend is moving towards a more legal and refined approach, with stricter requirements for risk identification and internal control for subsidiaries[6] Market Dynamics - The local financial holding industry has formed a three-tier development structure, with significant resource and risk differentiation across regions, necessitating attention to operational risks of new platforms[6] - The capital strength of local financial holding companies shows significant differentiation, with provincial platforms generally having better short-term debt repayment capabilities compared to city-level platforms[6] Credit Risk Outlook - The overall credit rating of the local financial holding industry remains stable and at a high level, with provincial platforms generally having better credit quality than city-level platforms[6] - The industry is expected to face continued pressure on profitability in 2026, but with macroeconomic recovery and government support, the overall credit risk is considered manageable[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the issuance scale of panda bonds exceeded 160 billion yuan, ranking second in history. Benefiting from factors such as the cost - advantage of domestic financing, continuous introduction of policy optimization, and the improvement of RMB internationalization, it is expected that panda bonds will remain popular in 2026, and the issuance volume may stay at a historically high level [1][34] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Panda Bond Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale and Quantity**: In 2025, 44 entities issued 114 panda bonds with a total scale of 163.66 billion yuan. The number of issuers remained the same as last year, the number of issuance periods increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the scale decreased by 16.0% year - on - year but was still at a high historical level [3] - **Reasons for High - level Issuance**: Firstly, the domestic financing cost has an advantage, and the panda bond market is still attractive to overseas issuers. Although the interest rate spread has narrowed due to the continuous interest rate cuts by European and American central banks, the domestic financing cost is still low. Secondly, policies for optimizing panda bond systems were continuously introduced, providing institutional convenience. Thirdly, the internationalization of the RMB continued to improve, and the exchange rate strengthened, increasing the attractiveness of RMB assets [5][8][11] 3.2 Characteristics and New Trends of the 2025 Panda Bond Market - **Low - interest Environment and Cost Reduction**: The domestic market maintained a low - interest environment. The issuance of panda bonds was concentrated in the medium - and long - term, and the average issuance cost hit a new low. The issuance volume of panda bonds reached a peak from June to July, and there was a significant correlation between the monthly issuance scale and the domestic interest rate trend [13][14] - **Optimized Issuer Structure**: The issuer structure of panda bonds was more optimized. The proportion of panda bond issuers with foreign backgrounds reached a new high since 2019, and the sources of issuers were more diversified. The registration locations of issuers showed a decentralized trend [15] - **Diversified Industry Distribution**: The industry distribution of panda bond issuers was relatively diversified. Financial institutions ranked first in the issuance scale, and the scale of panda bonds issued by the daily consumption industry decreased significantly. There were new issuances of sovereign panda bonds [19][20] - **Reduction in Rated Bond Quantity**: The number of panda bonds issued with ratings decreased. The credit ratings of bonds were mainly concentrated in the AAA level, and the proportion of unrated panda bonds increased [21] - **Change in Sustainable Development - themed Bonds**: The issuance scale of sustainable development - themed panda bonds continued to decline. Green panda bonds accounted for the highest proportion, and product innovation was more active, with new science - and technology innovation panda bonds issued [24][25] 3.3 Outlook for the 2026 Panda Bond Market - **Low Financing Cost**: It is expected that the financing cost of panda bonds will remain low in 2026. The PBOC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the Fed's monetary policy may continue to be loose, but there are significant differences in the interest rate cut rhythm. The relative financing cost advantage of the RMB still exists, but the inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread may continue to narrow [27][29] - **Continuous Improvement of External Conditions**: RMB internationalization is expected to continue to advance, and relevant panda bond regulations are expected to be continuously improved. The PBOC welcomes more overseas entities to issue panda bonds, which will provide a good external environment for the panda bond market [30][31] - **High Refinancing Demand**: In 2026, the panda bond market will face a peak of maturity and repayment. The high refinancing demand will support the issuance of panda bonds [32] - **Diversified Expansion of Issuers**: Driven by the Belt and Road Initiative and multilateral mechanisms, the panda bond market will see opportunities for the expansion of diversified issuers in 2026 [33] - **Overall Forecast**: In 2026, panda bonds are expected to remain popular, and the issuance volume may stay at a historically high level [34]