Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve's monetary easing initiated in September is perceived as "preventive rate cuts" rather than "recessionary rate cuts" with core inflation in the U.S. expected to stabilize around 3% until mid-next year[1] - China's economic environment may benefit from the Fed's easing, potentially boosting external demand, but market concerns focus on demand recovery and price stabilization[1] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of monetary easing measures, including a 20 basis point cut in the 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and a 50 basis point reduction in existing mortgage rates, indicating a shift towards counter-cyclical policy[10] Group 2: Asset Allocation and Market Performance - In September, global asset allocation saw increases in commodities, domestic stocks, and bond markets, while foreign exchange allocations suffered losses due to a strong appreciation of the RMB[2] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.5% from the end of July, reflecting a recovery in U.S. equities supported by rate cut expectations[7] - The domestic stock market experienced a rebound towards the end of September, driven by favorable monetary policy announcements, despite earlier declines of 3.0% in the CSI 300 index[10] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - U.S. retail sales growth in August was 2.13% year-on-year, slightly below the average for 2024, while manufacturing PMI showed signs of recovery[7] - The Chinese economy is in a recovery phase, with industrial production remaining strong but domestic demand still weak, as indicated by low inflation rates around 0%[10] - The anticipated further rate cuts by the Fed may provide China with additional room to lower financing costs, with expectations of increased fiscal spending directed towards real estate and infrastructure projects[11]
宏观经济研究：四季度全球大类资产配置报告
Great Wall Securities·2024-09-27 06:03