宏观经济研究：2024年四季度宏观经济展望

Group 1: U.S. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's monetary easing in September is viewed as "preventive rate cuts" rather than "recessionary rate cuts," indicating a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments[1] - The core CPI in the U.S. is expected to stabilize around 3% until mid-2024, influenced by rebounding rents and declining core goods and services[1] - The actual interest rates are expected to decline, but the pace of rate cuts may not meet market expectations due to persistent inflationary pressures[1] Group 2: China Economic Environment - The U.S. monetary easing may boost external demand for China, but domestic effective demand remains insufficient, necessitating a shift in market expectations[1] - China's economic growth is anticipated to rely on the transition from old to new growth drivers, emphasizing the need for deeper reforms to enhance productivity[1] - The fiscal deficit for the year is projected to be around 1.3 trillion yuan, with potential increases in deficit and bond issuance to support economic growth[1] Group 3: Key Economic Indicators - In Q2 2023, China's actual GDP growth was 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 4.7% year-on-year, with expectations for Q3 GDP growth around 4.5%[1] - The consumer confidence index in China has shown a decline, with retail sales growth at 2.1% in August, indicating weak consumer sentiment[1] - Manufacturing investment in China has shown resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1% in the first eight months of 2023, supporting industrial production despite overall demand weakness[1]