农林牧渔：产能恢复明显偏弱，2025年猪价获支撑

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The recovery of production capacity is significantly slow, with leading pig companies being the main contributors to new capacity [1][7] - The pig prices are expected to remain high in the second half of 2024, with limited decline in 2025 [1][18] - Overall, listed pig companies have seen a slight increase in output, while breeding costs are on a downward trend [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Production Capacity Recovery - The recovery of breeding sows is notably slow, with the number of breeding sows at 40.38 million heads at the end of Q2 2024, showing only a slight increase of 1.2% from Q1 2024 [1][7] - Major pig companies like Muyuan and Wens are the primary contributors to the increase in breeding sows, with a combined increase of approximately 267,000 heads, accounting for 0.66% of the national total [1][13] - The average debt-to-equity ratio of 20 listed pig companies remains high at 63%, indicating ongoing financial pressure in the industry [1][15] 2. Pig Price Stabilization - Pig prices are expected to maintain high levels in Q4 2024, with a potential for limited decline in 2025 due to slower recovery in production capacity [1][18] - The average price of pigs reached a peak of 21.17 yuan/kg in August 2024, followed by a decline to 17.94 yuan/kg by late September, a drop of 15.3% [1][18] - The seasonal factors suggest that after the Spring Festival, pig prices may enter a downward cycle, but the decline is expected to be gradual [1][18] 3. Output and Cost Trends - From January to August 2024, the total output of 18 listed pig companies increased by 2.1% year-on-year, with August output rising by 1.5% [2][3] - The breeding costs for major listed companies are in a downward trend, with costs reported at 13.7 yuan/kg for Shennong Group and 13.8 yuan/kg for Muyuan [2][3] - The overall financial health of the industry is under pressure, with equity financing declining from a peak of 44.8 billion yuan in 2021 to only 1.9 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2024 [1][15][17]