房地产行业跟踪分析：中央强化稳地产诉求，积极把握四季度投资机遇

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The Central Committee's Politburo meeting in September emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, marking a shift in policy focus towards promoting market recovery and stability [9][10] - Current housing affordability rates in China are at a historical low of 59%, suggesting potential for market stabilization if rates can reach a balanced level of 45%-50% [12] - The market currently reflects a 19% expected decline in property values, with major real estate companies trading at an average of 0.51x PB, indicating pessimistic market sentiment [16][18] - Investment opportunities are identified in traditional development companies and undervalued firms facing delisting risks, supported by recent policy measures [2][20] Summary by Sections Section 1: Policy Developments - The September Politburo meeting was unprecedented in its focus on real estate, outlining specific measures such as adjusting purchase limits and lowering existing mortgage rates to stabilize the market [9][10] - The meeting's urgency reflects the central government's commitment to economic stability, with real estate, private economy, and employment as key focus areas for the fourth quarter [9][10] Section 2: Market Conditions - The current housing affordability rate of 59% is the lowest on record, with potential for improvement if it aligns with historical averages of 45%-50% [12] - The report suggests that with continued economic growth and central government support, the market may find a bottom and stabilize [12] Section 3: Company Valuations - Major real estate companies are currently valued at an average of 0.51x PB, indicating a market expectation of a 19% decline in property values [16][18] - Only a few companies, such as Jianfa International Group and Binjiang Group, have PB ratios exceeding 1, suggesting that most firms are viewed as having negative value assets [16][18] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report highlights two main investment directions: traditional development companies benefiting from policy implementation and undervalued companies at risk of delisting [2][20] - The central government's support for the real estate sector and financial policies aimed at enhancing company valuations are expected to drive market recovery [20]