金融｜解读政治局会议最新表述：金融政策和财政政策的转向

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][12]. Core Views - The recent Politburo meeting reflects a significant increase in high-level attention to the economy, with a clear policy shift towards fiscal measures [5][11]. - The meeting's timing and pace exceeded expectations, suggesting a proactive approach to economic recovery [3][5]. - The focus on fiscal policy is expected to enhance the fundamentals and asset quality of banks, boosting market risk appetite [3][12]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core banking assets such as Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank due to their strong fundamentals [3][12]. - It also recommends selecting undervalued city commercial banks, including Jiangsu Bank, Changshu Bank, Ruifeng Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Qilu Bank [3][12]. - Large banks with high dividend yields, such as Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and China Construction Bank, are also highlighted as beneficial in a weak economic recovery [3][12]. Key Signals - The meeting's occurrence in September is notable as it is the first economic-themed Politburo meeting since the 18th National Congress, indicating heightened economic concerns [5][6]. - The rapid transition from financial to fiscal policy is faster than market expectations, with significant implications for economic support [5][7]. Policy Direction and Focus Areas - The report emphasizes the need for increased fiscal and monetary policy counter-cyclical adjustments, ensuring necessary fiscal expenditures [7][9]. - Key areas of focus include expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, and enhancing social welfare, with potential measures for subsidies and support for low-income groups [9][11]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in fiscal policy efforts in the fourth quarter, funded by long-term special bonds and local government bonds [7][9]. Market Impact - The Politburo meeting is expected to improve market sentiment and enhance growth stability, with the potential for a positive feedback loop between capital markets and domestic consumption [11][12]. - Continuous observation of policy implementation, particularly the scale and intensity of fiscal measures, will be crucial for assessing economic recovery [11][12].