2024年9月中央政治局会议精神学习体会：高度重视经济问题，政策迎来拐点时刻

Economic Outlook - The September Politburo meeting indicates a rapid change in economic conditions, highlighting urgent economic issues and the need for timely policy responses[1] - The meeting acknowledged the economic performance in 2024 but noted a decline in growth momentum, with GDP growth in Q3 expected to be around 4.6%[1][6] - Industrial production growth fell to 4.5% year-on-year in August, while retail sales growth dropped to 2.1%, reflecting weak domestic demand[6] Macro Policy - The meeting emphasized increasing counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policy measures, including necessary fiscal spending and the issuance of special bonds[10] - Public fiscal revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2024, while government fund revenue fell by 21.1%[10] - The central bank announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.2 percentage point cut in the 7-day reverse repo rate, indicating a strong monetary easing stance[10][16] Real Estate Market - The Politburo meeting explicitly called for measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on both supply and demand sides[19] - Supply-side measures include controlling new housing construction and increasing funding for "white list" projects to prevent unfinished buildings[19] - Demand-side measures involve adjusting housing purchase restrictions and lowering existing mortgage rates, with a 50 basis point reduction already announced[22] Capital Market - The meeting stressed the need to boost the capital market, with specific measures to attract long-term funds and support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies[25] - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently at historical lows, with a price-to-earnings ratio below the 10-year median, indicating a need for market stabilization[25][28] - Policies to protect small investors and promote public fund reforms are also being considered to enhance market confidence[25] Economic Entities - The meeting highlighted the importance of supporting enterprises, particularly private ones, to navigate challenges and improve the business environment[30] - Private investment saw a year-on-year decline of 0.2% in the first eight months of 2024, marking the first negative growth this year[30] - Employment remains a critical focus, with the urban unemployment rate rising to 5.3% in August, necessitating targeted support for vulnerable groups[30][33]