机械行业：通用设备有望迎顺周期拐点

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as it is expected to outperform the market benchmark index by more than 5% [6][28]. Core Viewpoints - The mechanical industry is anticipated to reach a cyclical turning point, driven by external demand and favorable monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates further [2][4]. - Manufacturing overall is likely to enter a positive cycle, with the PMI recorded at 50.2% in August 2024, indicating a potential recovery in demand and profitability for enterprises [12][14]. - The transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector, along with cyclical recovery, are expected to become the main market themes, with specific attention on segments such as industrial control equipment, robotics, and machine tools [3][14]. Summary by Sections External Demand - The Federal Reserve's unexpected rate cut of 50 basis points to 4.75%-5.00% is projected to stimulate external demand, with China's export delivery value growing by 6.4% year-on-year in August 2024 [2][9]. - Specific sectors such as general equipment manufacturing and specialized equipment manufacturing saw year-on-year growth rates of 10.30% and 13.70%, respectively [9][12]. Manufacturing Cycle - The manufacturing PMI indicates a recovery, with large enterprises showing expansion while small and medium enterprises remain in contraction [12][14]. - The overall manufacturing sector is expected to improve as external demand remains strong and internal demand recovers, leading to enhanced profitability for companies [12][14]. Market Trends - The demand indices and leading indicators suggest a positive outlook for mechanical equipment companies, with historical data showing significant stock price increases during previous recovery periods [3][14]. - Recommended stocks include 汇川技术 (300124), 埃斯顿 (002403), 创世纪 (300083), 海天精工 (601882), and 伊之密 (300415), which are expected to benefit from the cyclical recovery [3][14].