农林牧渔行业专题报告：生猪养殖区域专题系列三（四川省）：自然禀赋优越疾病风险可控，代养模式成熟加速扩张

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2] Core Insights - Sichuan Province has favorable natural conditions and a cultural drive that supports pig farming, with a significant concentration of pig production in the Chengdu Plain area [8][11] - The supply of pork in Sichuan is abundant, with production consistently exceeding local consumption, leading to lower prices compared to the national average [11][14] - The group farming model is gaining traction, with an increasing share of production coming from larger farms, while smallholders are gradually declining [15][16] Summary by Sections 1. Favorable Natural Conditions and Cultural Drivers - Sichuan's diverse geography provides excellent conditions for pig farming, with the Sichuan Basin being particularly suitable due to its flat terrain and rich resources [8] - In 2021, Sichuan's pig output reached 63.15 million heads, with the province maintaining its status as the top producer in China in 2023 with 66.63 million heads [8][11] - The local culinary culture, especially Sichuan cuisine, drives high demand for pork, further supporting the industry [8] 2. Abundant Pork Supply and Demand Changes - Sichuan's pork supply is robust, with 2022 data showing a per capita pork production of 57.08 kg and consumption of 38.29 kg, indicating a surplus [11][14] - The average price of live pigs in Sichuan is 15.96 yuan/kg, slightly below the national average of 16.15 yuan/kg, reflecting a price suppression due to oversupply [11] - The province has a wide range of pork export markets, including coastal and northern regions, due to its high-quality pork and competitive pricing [11] 3. Increasing Share of Group Farms and Maturing Farmer Contracting Models - The market share of group farms has increased from 30% to 40%, while smallholder farms have decreased from 50% to 40% [15] - The farmer contracting model, where companies provide resources and support to family farms, is becoming more established, allowing for efficient production and risk management [16] - Group farms are leading the recovery of production capacity, actively replenishing breeding stock to meet future supply needs [18]