银行行业：政治局会议定调积极，看好预期扭转推升估值

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by over 5% [1][14]. Core Insights - The recent Politburo meeting on September 26 emphasized the need for increased fiscal and monetary policy adjustments, signaling a proactive approach to economic management [2][3]. - The report highlights a clear signal for a new round of growth stabilization policies, with a focus on implementing existing policies and introducing new measures to achieve economic and social development goals [3]. - The banking sector is expected to benefit from the anticipated acceleration in real estate loan disbursements and improved asset quality due to enhanced financial support [3][4]. - The report suggests that the banking sector will continue to attract long-term capital, bolstered by policies aimed at increasing the participation of institutional investors in the capital market [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The banking industry comprises 48 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of approximately 123,614.63 billion yuan, representing 14.9% of the market [1]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry stands at 5.95 [1]. Key Events - Upcoming significant events include the disclosure of third-quarter reports by listed banks in October [2]. Policy Implications - The report notes that the Politburo's emphasis on fiscal policy includes ensuring necessary government spending and effectively utilizing special bonds to stimulate investment [3]. - Monetary policy adjustments are expected, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to support liquidity in the banking sector [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks with strong correlations to economic recovery and significant earnings potential, particularly regional banks in economically robust areas [7]. - It also highlights the long-term investment value of high-dividend yielding assets, particularly state-owned banks, which are expected to see enhanced capital stability and sustainable dividends [7].