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宏观周报:国内积极信号全面释放,欧美经济景气偏弱
Southwest Securities·2024-09-27 10:01

Domestic Economic Signals - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market[6] - The average reduction in existing mortgage rates is expected to be around 0.5%, benefiting 50 million households and reducing annual interest expenses by approximately 150 billion yuan[6] - The "Two New" policy has led to a 16.8% increase in equipment investment in the first eight months, contributing 64.2% to overall investment growth[5] Employment and Policy Measures - The Central Committee issued 24 measures to promote high-quality employment, aiming to enhance laborers' income and job security[8] - The urban unemployment rate in China was reported at 5.3% in August, with youth unemployment (ages 16-24) rising to 18.8%[8] International Economic Trends - The Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 48.9%, indicating economic weakness and increasing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank[15] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI dropped to 47%, marking a 15-month low, while the services PMI remained at 55.4%, indicating a divergence in economic performance[14] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the announcement of supportive policies, the domestic stock market showed an upward trend, reflecting increased investor confidence[7] - The upcoming political bureau meeting is expected to initiate a new round of growth-stabilizing policies, particularly benefiting the stock market and overall economic sentiment[11]