生猪养殖区域专题系列三（四川省）：自然禀赋优越疾病风险可控，代养模式成熟加速扩张

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2]. Core Insights - Sichuan Province has favorable natural conditions and a cultural drive that supports pig farming, with a significant concentration of pig production in the Chengdu Plain and surrounding areas [8][11]. - The supply of pork in Sichuan is abundant, with the province's pig output consistently leading the nation, reaching 66.63 million heads in 2023 [11][12]. - The pig farming market in Sichuan is experiencing a shift towards larger-scale operations, with group farms increasing their market share while smallholders are declining [15][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Favorable Natural Conditions and Cultural Drivers - Sichuan's geographical features, including the fertile Sichuan Basin, provide excellent conditions for pig farming, with a low incidence of disease due to natural barriers [8]. - The province's pig output was 63.15 million heads in 2021, with major production areas including Nanchong, Yibin, Liangshan, Dazhou, and Chengdu, accounting for 38.37% of the total output [8][11]. - The local culinary culture, particularly Sichuan cuisine, drives high demand for pork, further supporting the industry [8]. 2. Abundant Pork Supply and Demand Changes - In 2023, Sichuan's pig output reached 66.63 million heads, maintaining its position as the top producer in China [11]. - The average pork price in Sichuan was 15.96 yuan/kg, slightly below the national average of 16.15 yuan/kg, indicating a price suppression due to oversupply [11][12]. - Changes in consumer habits, including a shift towards healthier diets, have led to a decrease in pork demand, impacting long-term consumption trends [14]. 3. Increased Market Share of Group Farms and Maturing Contract Farming Models - The market share of group farms has risen from 30% to 40%, while smallholder farms have decreased from 50% to 40% due to external pressures such as disease and low prices [15][18]. - The "company + family farm" model has matured, allowing for efficient collaboration between companies and farmers, enhancing production efficiency and reducing risks [16]. - Group farms are leading the recovery of pig production capacity, actively replenishing breeding stock to meet future supply needs [18]. 4. Recovery of Production Capacity and Expansion of Contract Farming - The number of breeding sows in Sichuan fluctuated significantly due to external shocks, with a recent count of 3.69 million sows in 2023 [18]. - Group farms are expected to restore production capacity and expand their market share through effective management and the utilization of idle capacities from smallholders [18].