以旧换新专题研究：从不同维度拆解政策落地效果

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The implementation of the old-for-new policy has significantly boosted retail sales, with over 243 billion yuan in sales driven by the policy from March to August 2024, accounting for approximately 5% of the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment during this period [2][17] - The policy has led to a notable increase in sales across various regions, particularly in provinces that implemented the subsidy details earlier, such as Hubei and Zhejiang, showing strong performance in categories like air conditioners and range hoods [2][20] Summary by Sections Policy Analysis - In August, various local governments launched detailed old-for-new subsidy policies, enhancing product categories and payment convenience. Over half of the provinces completed the detailed policy rollout by August, with 20 regions including additional products like dryers and smart toilets in the subsidy scope [14][19] - The subsidy method adopted in 23 regions is a direct discount model, allowing consumers to enjoy immediate benefits [14] Regional Performance - The immediate impact of the policy rollout was evident, with significant sales increases in regions like Beijing and Guangdong, where the policy led to sales of over 145 million units and 37 billion yuan in sales [19][20] - Provinces such as Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Sichuan showed sustained strong performance in sales across various appliance categories [20] Product Category Insights - Most subsidized product categories saw a turnaround from negative to positive growth, with air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, range hoods, and televisions showing year-on-year sales growth rates of 72%, 44%, 39%, 66%, and 32% respectively [2][4] - The average price of air conditioners has shown an upward trend due to the subsidy policy, which is expected to continue driving product upgrades [2][4] Brand Performance - Leading offline brands such as Midea and Gree have seen significant sales growth, with Midea's offline sales increasing by 57% and online sales by 110% during the specified period [4] - Xiaomi has maintained a strong performance online, being the only brand to achieve both volume and price increases [4] Channel Analysis - There is a high degree of synchronization between online and offline channels, with major platforms like JD.com aligning their old-for-new policies with local subsidy initiatives [5] Production Insights - Air conditioner production is expected to accelerate in Q4, driven by ongoing promotions and inventory clearance efforts, indicating a positive outlook for domestic sales [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on white goods companies such as Midea Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense, as well as black goods companies like TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual, along with component suppliers [7]