跨境电商行业：高性价比消费时代，品牌出海大有可为

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cross-border e-commerce industry, indicating significant potential for brands to expand internationally [1]. Core Insights - The resilience of overseas demand combined with the trend of high cost-performance consumption presents substantial opportunities for brands going abroad. China's export trade continues to grow, with cross-border e-commerce, particularly in exports, performing exceptionally well. The U.S. market, after a period of destocking in 2023, shows considerable replenishment demand, supported by the easing of interest rates, which is expected to aid the recovery of the real estate chain and provide foundational support for China's cross-border e-commerce exports [1][11]. - The cross-border e-commerce industry has developed a comprehensive supply chain, including manufacturers, brands, platforms, warehousing, logistics, and payment services. The report highlights the growth potential of brand exports, particularly in premium categories, and the emergence of new e-commerce platforms like Temu and TikTok, which offer fresh opportunities for domestic brands [2]. - The report identifies two main risks facing the cross-border e-commerce export sector: international political risks and rising shipping costs. However, it suggests that these risks are manageable in the short term, and emphasizes the importance of focusing on brands with strong competitive advantages and resilience in the face of political uncertainties [2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Overseas Demand and Consumption Trends - China's export trade continues to grow, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9% over the past three years, and the total import and export scale reached 41.8 trillion yuan in 2023, remaining stable compared to 2022. The first half of 2024 saw a 6.1% year-on-year increase in import and export volume [11]. - The cross-border e-commerce sector's total import and export volume reached 2.38 trillion yuan in 2023, with exports accounting for 1.83 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.6% [11][12]. - The U.S. retail and food service sales showed a year-on-year growth of 2.64% in the first half of 2024, indicating a stable growth trend that supports cross-border e-commerce [20]. Section 2: Industry Supply Chain and Brand Opportunities - The cross-border e-commerce industry has established a well-rounded supply chain, with a focus on brand exports and premium product categories. The rise of independent platforms and new e-commerce channels is creating new growth opportunities for domestic brands [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of logistics and warehousing services, which are benefiting from the rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce [2]. Section 3: Risk Factors and Investment Strategy - The report identifies international political risks and rising shipping costs as significant challenges for the cross-border e-commerce sector. However, it suggests that these risks are currently manageable and emphasizes the need to focus on brands with strong competitive advantages [2]. - The investment strategy highlights the importance of high cost-performance products in the context of global inflation, suggesting that consumers are increasingly prioritizing value for money, which benefits quality domestic brands going abroad [2][35].