工业企业利润点评（24.8）暨双循环周报（第76期）：基数令利润大幅下滑，稳增长政策包期待见效

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In August, industrial enterprise profits showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 0.5%, with a significant month-on-month decline of 21.9 percentage points to -17.8%, marking the lowest growth rate since May 2023[1] - The profit decline was primarily due to two factors: last year's base effect from a significant narrowing of PPI declines and this year's expanded PPI decline, which deepened the cost burden on profits by 1.7 percentage points to -12.3%[1] - The cumulative expense ratio for industrial enterprises rose by 0.04 percentage points to 8.41%, leading to a direct profit drag of 10.7 percentage points to -5.7%[1] Group 2: Investment and Consumption Impact - Investment consumption and domestic demand continued to be insufficient, causing a year-on-year revenue decline of 3.8% to -0.9%, which further exacerbated the profit decline[1] - The impact of extreme weather conditions and ineffective fiscal subsidies for consumer goods contributed to the ongoing weakness in domestic demand[1] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in domestic demand and industrial profits due to the implementation of new fiscal and monetary policies, including a potential issuance of 1 trillion yuan in ordinary government bonds[1] Group 3: Sector-Specific Performance - Among the three major industrial sectors, mining profits saw a slight narrowing of the year-on-year decline to -9.2%, while manufacturing and public utilities experienced significant drops of 3.9% and 5.4% to 1.1% and 14.7%, respectively[1] - The decline in public utility profits was attributed to extreme weather events affecting production electricity, while manufacturing profits reflected the ongoing drag from insufficient domestic demand[1] Group 4: Inventory and Production Insights - In August, nominal inventory growth remained stable, with a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 5.1%, while actual inventory growth rose by 1.0 percentage points to 7.0%, the highest since July 2023[1] - The current weak consumption and investment landscape has led to a cautious approach in production increases, resulting in a rare flattening of the inventory replenishment slope over several months[1]