2024年9月策略月报：系列利好政策提振市场信心

Market Overview - In September, the A-share market experienced a rebound after an initial decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 2,863.13 points, up 0.74% from the end of August. The ChiNext Index saw the highest increase at 2.21%, followed by the CSI 500 at 1.09% [1][6][10] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity. Additionally, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered from 1.7% to 1.5% [1][14] Liquidity and Market Sentiment - The total amount of restricted shares released in September decreased significantly, with a total of approximately 1,201.81 billion yuan, down 45.58% from the previous month. This indicates a reduction in the supply of shares available for trading [20][21] - New equity fund subscriptions increased by 50.55% month-on-month, with a total of 161.35 billion shares established [24] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 5,830.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.35% compared to August [20][23] Valuation Levels - As of September 24, the dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the STAR Market (科创50) was at the 60.77% historical percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical levels. The Shanghai Composite Index's P/E ratio increased by 3.01 percentage points from the end of August [29][30] - Among various sectors, only the non-bank financial, comprehensive, coal, construction materials, and real estate sectors had P/E ratios exceeding the 50% historical percentile [31] Policy Analysis - Recent policies emphasize the need for financial support to stabilize the economy, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, as well as promoting a new model for real estate development. The aim is to attract long-term capital into the market and support mergers and acquisitions [35][38] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to release guidelines to facilitate the entry of long-term funds into the market and enhance the stability of the capital market [35][38]