传媒行业专题：国内教育专题：政策环境边际改善，职业教育即将兴起

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the education industry, indicating an expectation that the industry will perform better than the market over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The domestic education policy environment is showing signs of improvement, providing new growth opportunities for the education and training industry. The 20th Central Committee emphasized education, technology, and talent as foundational supports for modernization in China. Recent policy drafts suggest a more favorable stance towards the education sector, particularly vocational education [2][4]. - Despite a significant decline in newborns, the population eligible for secondary education is expected to remain stable over the next decade, with vocational education and private undergraduate programs likely to see sustained demand [2][8]. - There is an increasing societal emphasis on vocational education, with a rapid growth in vocational schools in response to the changing labor market and economic conditions. The demand for specialized technical training is expected to rise, indicating a potential boom in the vocational education sector [2][4]. - The report suggests that the next decade will see a stable increase in the eligible population for secondary and higher education, alongside a growing recognition of the importance of vocational education, leading to an expansion of the education and training ecosystem [2][4]. Summary by Sections Policy Environment - The education sector is positioned as a strategic foundation for modernization, with recent policies indicating a shift towards supporting vocational education and improving the quality of training institutions [4][5]. - The 2024 draft regulations on off-campus training reflect a more lenient approach compared to previous policies, suggesting a potential recovery for the education sector [4][5]. Demographic Trends - The eligible population for vocational education is projected to face pressure after 2034 due to declining birth rates, but the market for vocational and private undergraduate education is expected to remain robust in the coming years [8][26]. - The number of vocational schools has surged since 2021, reflecting a societal shift towards valuing vocational education as a viable career path [18][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies several key companies in the education sector, including Xueda Education, New Oriental, and others, as potential investment opportunities due to their positioning in the growing vocational education market [2][28][31]. Company Performance - Xueda Education reported a revenue of 1.62 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, marking an 82% year-on-year increase, indicating a strong recovery post-policy changes [28]. - New Oriental's revenue for FY2024 reached 30.81 billion yuan, a 43.89% increase from the previous year, showcasing robust growth in its core education business [31]. - Other companies like Kaiven Education and Dao Shen Education are also showing signs of recovery and growth, with significant increases in revenue and profitability [29][34]. Future Outlook - The education sector is expected to benefit from improved policies and demographic trends, with a focus on vocational education likely to drive growth in the coming years [2][4][8].