锡行业深度报告系列（一）：半导体景气复苏，锡供需格局持续向好

Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the tin industry, highlighting the positive supply-demand dynamics and the recovery in the semiconductor sector [4] Core Views - The global tin supply is constrained due to resource concentration and slowing production growth, while demand from emerging industries such as semiconductors and photovoltaics is robust [2][3] - Tin prices have shown a strong upward trend in 2024, driven by tight supply expectations and macroeconomic factors [3] - The semiconductor industry's recovery is driving tin solder demand, with semiconductor sales projected to grow by 16% in 2024 [2][30] Supply Side - Global tin mine production has been concentrated in Asia, Africa, and South America, with an average annual output of around 300,000 tons over the past decade [2] - China's tin mine imports have significantly declined since April 2024 due to Myanmar's mining ban policy, further tightening supply [2] - The global refined tin production in 2023 was 370,000 tons, a 2.6% YoY decrease, with Q2 2024 production at 91,400 tons, up 16.43% QoQ [2][19] Demand Side - Global refined tin consumption in 2023 was 360,000 tons, a 2.9% YoY decline, with Q2 2024 consumption at 88,000 tons, down 0.1% QoQ [2] - Semiconductor sales in Q1 and Q2 2024 reached $140.8 billion and $149.9 billion, respectively, with a projected annual growth of 16% [2][30] - Photovoltaic installations in China grew by 27.1% YoY in the first seven months of 2024, driving tin demand for photovoltaic solder ribbons [2] Price Trends - Tin prices have been strong in 2024, with the average SHFE tin price at 246,900 yuan/ton, up 16.25% YoY, and LME tin at $29,978/ton, up 15.70% YoY [3] - Tin concentrate processing fees have remained stable, with 60% grade at 11,000 yuan/ton and 40% grade at 15,000 yuan/ton [3] Key Companies - Yunnan Tin remains the world's largest refined tin producer, with a 2023 output of 31,958 tons and reserves of 646,400 tons [15] - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals reported a 2023 output of 6,500 tons and reserves of 179,000 tons, with significant growth in revenue and net profit [50] - Xingye Silver-Tin achieved a 2023 output of 7,769 tons and reserves of 191,000 tons, with a 457.41% YoY increase in net profit [52]