东兴证券：东兴晨报-20240928

Core Insights - The Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26 emphasized the need for effective implementation of existing policies and the introduction of new policies to achieve economic and social development goals for the year [10][14] - The meeting indicated a stronger focus on fiscal and monetary policies, with expectations for increased government spending and a potential for further interest rate cuts [10][11] - The meeting also highlighted the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and promoting capital market growth by facilitating long-term fund inflows [10][11] Fiscal Policy - The meeting called for increased counter-cyclical adjustments in fiscal policy, ensuring necessary fiscal expenditures, and effectively utilizing special bonds [10][14] - There is an expectation for accelerated issuance of government bonds and local government bonds in the remaining months of the year to support economic development [10][14] Monetary Policy - The meeting stressed the need to lower the reserve requirement ratio and implement significant interest rate cuts [10][11] - The People's Bank of China indicated a supportive monetary policy stance, with expectations for further reductions in the reserve requirement ratio by 25 or 50 basis points by the end of the year [10][11] Capital Market - The meeting emphasized efforts to boost the capital market by addressing barriers to long-term fund inflows from social security, insurance, and wealth management [10][11] - Specific measures were discussed to simplify the process for mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, aiming to enhance market activity [10][11] Real Estate Market - The meeting outlined a shift in focus from merely stabilizing the real estate market to actively promoting its recovery, with measures to control new construction and optimize existing supply [14][15] - Policies are expected to be more comprehensive, addressing both supply and demand sides to stabilize housing prices and improve market conditions [14][15] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector is anticipated to enter a cyclical upswing, supported by external demand and improved domestic consumption [6][7] - The manufacturing PMI recorded 50.2% in August, indicating a potential recovery, particularly for large enterprises [6][7] Logistics and Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery industry is experiencing a surge in demand, driven by the growth of e-commerce, although price competition remains intense [16][17] - Companies are adapting their strategies to maintain profitability despite competitive pressures, with some achieving significant profit growth [16][17] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that are likely to benefit from the anticipated economic recovery, particularly in banking and real estate [10][15] - Specific companies within the manufacturing and express delivery sectors are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strong market positions and growth prospects [6][17]