山西证券：研究早观点-20240928

Group 1: Company Overview - The report focuses on Laopu Gold, recognized as the leading brand in ancient gold in China, with a strong profitability and market presence [8][9] - Laopu Gold has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.5% in revenue and 53.0% in net profit from 2017 to 2023, indicating robust growth [8] - In the first half of 2024, Laopu Gold reported revenue of 3.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 148.3%, and a net profit of 588 million yuan, up 198.8% [8] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - The ancient gold product market is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 20% from 2023 to 2028, with Laopu Gold positioned to increase its market share significantly [8][9] - The company currently holds a 2.0% market share in the ancient gold jewelry market, ranking seventh among major brands, indicating substantial room for growth [8][9] - Laopu Gold's pricing strategy allows for a premium, with an average selling price of 1,043 yuan per gram for its gold inlay products, showcasing its strong pricing power [9] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Laopu Gold's competitive edge lies in its high-end positioning, original designs, and strict quality control, which differentiate its products from traditional gold jewelry [9] - The company operates a self-managed store model, focusing on high-end shopping districts in first-tier and new first-tier cities, enhancing its brand visibility and customer reach [9] - The number of Laopu Gold stores has increased from 22 at the end of 2021 to 33 by mid-2024, with same-store sales growth of 115.4% and 104.2% in 2023 and the first half of 2024, respectively [9] Group 4: Future Expansion Plans - Laopu Gold plans to open 4 new stores annually from 2024 to 2026, with a focus on expanding its footprint in both domestic and overseas markets [9] - The company aims to enhance existing store sizes and locations to improve sales performance, indicating a strategic approach to growth [9] - Internationally, Laopu Gold is targeting markets in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Tokyo, with plans to open additional stores in these regions [9] Group 5: Financial Projections - The forecast for Laopu Gold's net profit from 2024 to 2026 is 1.094 billion yuan, 1.324 billion yuan, and 1.532 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 162.9%, 21.0%, and 15.7% respectively [9] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 6.50 yuan, 7.86 yuan, and 9.10 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17.9, 14.8, and 12.8 [9]