东海证券：晨会纪要-20240928

Key Recommendations - The core view of the report highlights a significant interest rate cut, stabilization of the real estate market, and efforts to boost the capital market, which are expected to drive a rebound in nominal GDP growth in Q4 2024, potentially leading to a dual rise in A-share valuations and earnings [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of the September 2024 Politburo meeting, which was unusual as it focused on economic issues, signaling a strong policy response to current economic challenges [6] - The report suggests that the "forceful" interest rate cut indicates the beginning of a new rate-cutting cycle, with further cuts possible within the year, alongside a potential reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 25-50bps [7] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, with potential easing of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities and policies aimed at optimizing existing housing stock [7] - The capital market is set to receive a boost, with efforts to guide long-term funds into the market, including from social security, insurance, and wealth management funds [8] Company Analysis: Toppan Photomask (603690 SH) - Toppan Photomask is a leading domestic provider of high-purity process systems, with a strong competitive advantage in the semiconductor industry, achieving ppb-level impurity control and securing a 30% market share in China [11] - The company's high-purity process system business generated revenue of 2 318 billion yuan in 2023, a 6 18% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 37 06%, and is expected to secure new orders worth 4 billion yuan in 2024 [11] - Toppan Photomask is expanding into wet process equipment, achieving full coverage at the 28nm node and breakthroughs at the 14nm and below nodes, with new orders for semiconductor process equipment reaching 626 million yuan in H1 2024 [12] - The company is investing in equipment component supply, bulk gas stations, and wafer regeneration services, aiming to create new growth opportunities in the semiconductor industry [13] Market Commentary - The A-share market experienced a strong rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3 61% to close at 3,000 points, driven by significant inflows of large-capital funds and bullish technical indicators [18] - The real estate and securities sectors saw substantial gains, with the real estate index rising 7 45% and the securities index up 5 86%, both showing strong momentum despite overbought conditions [19] - The liquor, real estate services, and hotel sectors were among the top performers, with the liquor sector leading with a 9 57% gain [20]