流动性跟踪：节后资金面将回归充裕

Liquidity Overview - The recent reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates has led to a significant easing of liquidity, with the banking system's net outflow recovering to over 4 trillion yuan[1] - From September 23 to 27, the banking system's net outflow increased from 2.7 trillion yuan to over 4 trillion yuan, indicating improved market expectations for future liquidity[1] - The one-year deposit certificate rate fell from 1.94% to 1.87%, although it rebounded to 1.91% due to market sentiment[1] Government Debt and Fiscal Impact - The net payment for government bonds from September 30 to October 12 is projected to drop significantly to 1,630 billion yuan, down from over 8,275 billion yuan the previous week[2] - The expected government bond issuance during this period is 1,507.1 billion yuan, with no issuance of national bonds[2] Interbank Market Dynamics - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 413 billion yuan from September 23 to 29, with reverse repos totaling 14,611 billion yuan and maturing repos at 18,024 billion yuan[2] - The interbank lending rates showed a downward trend, with the overnight SHIBOR averaging 1.67% and the 7-day rate at 1.83%[2] Commercial Paper Market - From September 23 to 27, commercial paper rates increased, with 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month rates rising by 19bp, 11bp, and 6bp to 1.69%, 1.51%, and 0.98% respectively[2] - Major banks shifted to a net selling position in commercial paper, selling 273 billion yuan during this period, contrasting with a net purchase of 1,060 billion yuan in September last year[2] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The net financing of interbank certificates of deposit turned positive, with a net financing of 1,229 billion yuan from September 23 to 29[2] - The weighted average issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit decreased to 1.93%, down 1bp from the previous week[2]