Focus Media(002027) 申万宏源·2024-09-28 23:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Focus Media (002027) [5][6] Core Views - The report highlights the dual support of strong fundamentals and high dividend yield for Focus Media [5][6] - The company's valuation is supported by its historical high dividend payout ratio, with a commitment to distribute at least 80% of non-GAAP net profit as dividends from 2024 to 2026 [6] - Focus Media is expected to benefit from potential improvements in consumer demand, which could lead to increased advertising budgets [5] - The company's international client advertising revenue grew by 20% YoY in H1 2024, indicating a solid foundation for future growth [5] Financial Performance - Focus Media's revenue for H1 2024 was 5,967 million yuan, with a YoY growth of 8.2% [7] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2024 was 2,493 million yuan, with a YoY growth of 11.7% [7] - The report forecasts revenue of 12,669 million yuan, 13,563 million yuan, and 14,651 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][7] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 5,339 million yuan, 5,872 million yuan, and 6,479 million yuan respectively [6][7] Industry and Market Context - The advertising market saw a 2.8% YoY increase in spending from January to July 2024, with 75% of advertisers indicating no increase in advertising budgets [5] - Focus Media's elevator media segment, particularly in the consumer goods sector, showed strong resilience with a 12% YoY growth in advertising spending [5] - The cosmetics category saw a significant 66% growth in H1 2024, driven by both domestic and international brands [5] Valuation and Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 17x, 15x, and 14x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6] - Focus Media's ROE is expected to be 28.6%, 29.7%, and 30.9% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7] - The company's dividend yield is 6.86%, based on the most recent dividend payout [3]