炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源 | 野马财经 作者|姚悦 分众传媒计提行动是否及时？ 近日，分众传媒（002027.SZ）宣布以7.91亿元对价彻底剥离助贷平台上海数禾信息科技有限公司（简 称：数禾科技），随之而来的是2025年四季度高达25.29亿元的巨额减值计提，业绩承压明显。就在同 一笔投资终止后，此前计入资本公积的5.65亿元其他权益变动将转入2026年一季度投资收益。 这一"一降一增"带来的客观效果是，在财务上将"包袱"留在了旧年，而将"礼包"送给了新年。 这背后，导致上述巨额计提的监管文件早在2025年4月就已公布，10月正式施行，有着长达近6个月的明 确过渡期和消化期。 截至2月2日收盘，分众传媒股价上涨2.22%，报7.36元/股，总市值1063亿元。 25亿计提背后， 监管"导火索"已引燃半年 近日，分众传媒公告宣布退出联营公司数禾科技，该公司运营"还呗"助贷平台，为个人用户提供信贷服 务。 因此，公司决定在2025年四季度，一次性计提达25.29亿元的损失。此举将严重拉低分众传媒2025年的 整体业绩表现。 与此同时，随着分众传媒以7.91亿 ...

从资金流向上来看，当日广告营销板块主力资金净流出19.64亿元，游资资金净流入6.01亿元，散户资金 净流入13.63亿元。广告营销板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入 (元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600986 | 浙文互联 | 5.36 Z | 7.33% | -2.81 Z | -3.84% | -2.55 Z | -3.49% | | 002291 | 遥望科技 | 5.19 Z | 29.07% | -2.86 Z | -16.02% | -2.33 Z | -13.06% | | 002027 | 分众传媒 | 2.34亿 | 13.76% | -1.24亿 | -7.30% | -1.10 Z | -6.46% | | 600556 | 天下秀 | 1.47 Z | 8.36% | -3708.97万 | -2.11% | -1.10 Z | -6.26% | | 002264 | 新华都 | ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that the recent volatility in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by market momentum reversals, with silver attracting high leverage and speculative funds since November 2025 [2][5] - The report anticipates that after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields likely to decline [2][4] - The report notes that the recent decline in the manufacturing PMI does not indicate a weakening economy, as it reflects a temporary fluctuation rather than a downward trend [10] Group 2: Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates that the recent crash in silver prices has led to liquidity risks that may spread to other commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support levels for gold prices, particularly the 60-day moving average, which is currently at $4,400 per ounce [5] - The report suggests that the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to manage the risk of a one-sided market in silver futures [5] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The report predicts a rebound in the A-share market following the Spring Festival, driven by positive sentiment from performance forecasts and new developments in sectors like AI applications and commercial aerospace [6][10] - It advises a balanced ETF allocation in domestic equities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the market [11] Group 4: Bond Market Perspective - The report notes that the bond market is expected to see increased buying activity due to risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing, with 10-year yields projected to decline to around 1.80% [7][10] - It highlights that the recent adjustments in risk appetite have created trading opportunities in government bonds as a hedge against stock market volatility [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the media industry, highlighting potential growth driven by policy improvements and AI advancements [4][7][17]. Core Insights - The media industry is characterized by a "supply determines demand" dynamic, with recent policy changes since 2022, particularly in the gaming sector, leading to a gradual recovery in supply and overall industry fundamentals [4][7][17]. - The introduction of the "Broadcasting 21 Measures" in August 2025 is expected to further enhance the supply side of the film and television industry, potentially marking a turning point in industry prosperity [7][25]. - AI technology is increasingly empowering production across various media sectors, significantly reducing costs and improving efficiency, which may lead to a new phase of growth in the industry [8][34][44]. Summary by Sections Policy Environment - The policy environment has shown marginal improvements, effectively addressing supply shortages in the media industry. Since 2022, the number of gaming licenses has been steadily increasing, and the "Broadcasting 21 Measures" aims to optimize the supply side of the film and television industry [7][25][27]. AI Empowerment - AI technology is being integrated into various media sectors, enhancing production efficiency and reducing costs. In gaming, AI is transitioning from a cost-cutting tool to a core element of gameplay innovation, while in advertising, AI has been validated by companies like Meta for improving return on investment [8][34][44]. Industry Performance - The media industry is expected to see significant performance improvements, with revenue and net profit showing positive growth starting in 2025. The gaming sector, in particular, has experienced accelerated growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching approximately 27.06 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 35.23% [48][49]. Index Analysis - The CSI Media Index focuses on marketing, advertising, cultural entertainment, and digital media, with a significant portion of its constituents in the gaming and advertising sectors. The index is expected to benefit from the ongoing integration of AI technology and favorable policy changes [9][58][61]. ETF Overview - The CSI Media ETF (512980), managed by GF Fund Management, is the largest in its category, providing a liquid investment vehicle for exposure to the media sector. As of January 16, 2026, the ETF's scale is approximately 9.96 billion yuan [10][94].

这家网贷平台运营方遭遇上市公司清仓式套现。 近期，分众传媒发布公告宣布，将通过境内定向减资和境外股权返还的形式退出旗下数禾科技。 公开信息显示，上海数禾信息科技有限公司成立于2015年下半年，为知名网贷平台"还呗"运营方，而还呗作为数禾科技的拳头产品于2016年2月就率先进入 贷款市场。 数禾科技创始人徐志刚自带银行业资深履历，其在招商银行曾深度参与了信用卡业务的运营管理工作，因此还呗和数禾科技在成立之初，就对股权投资人具 有很大的吸引力。 很快，分众传媒就于2016年3月份通过旗下公司以1亿元的代价拿下了数禾科技70%的股权。 伴随着网贷行业的快速发展，分众传媒持有的股权价值也在水涨船高，2017年末，数禾科技仅仅只是卖出了部分股权就获得了1.2亿元，一举收回了初始投 资成本。 在数禾科技完成B轮融资后，分众传媒旗下公司的持股占比稀释至41.9%。 2019年1月，数禾科技通过上海数桑信息科技有限公司等主体完成了VIE架构搭建，从这里不难看出，数禾科技大有登陆资本市场完成上市的意图。 分众传媒在公告中表示数禾此后还经历了多次股权变动，截至目前分众传媒持股主体持有数禾的股份比例被动增加至54.9%。 也是以此 ...

AI 流量争夺战已至，应用推广热度升温。春节期间，腾讯、百度、字节等大厂通过"AI 技术+节日场景 +现金激励"争夺AI 流量的同时，有望低成本完成C 端AI产品触达，AI 流量争夺有望从春节起在较长时 间内持续，品牌露出需求旺盛，大厂全年营销预算有望提升，利好线下营销场景业绩增长。 扩大内需刺激消费政策持续加力，居民消费总量前景积极。中央两办2025 年3月印发《提振消费专项行 动方案》，提出八方面30 项措施；中央下半年持续发力，通过补贴与减重并行、商品向服务扩容、供 给与需求协同，多维度刺激消费需求，扩大内需，中国居民消费意愿持续修复至2025 年三季度的96.3， 政策的连续性、一致性为2026 年居民消费总量开拓了积极前景。 体育营销将迎来集中热度。2026 年世界杯、冬奥会、亚运会等营销热点密集，观赛消费和体育经济有 望拉动消费总量的增加。 此外，我们长期看好公司优质电梯媒体资源稀缺性，看好公司业绩韧性。 盈利预测与估值：考虑到公司长期展现的稳健业绩、广告交付效果的持续升级，以及2026 年营销热点 的集中趋势，我们维持对公司收入能力的预测，即2025-2027 年收入分别为130.8/146.1 ...

回收现金聚焦梯媒主业，看好长期业绩韧性 广告营销 执业证书编号：S0740515080001 Email：kangyw@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 14,442.20 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 14,442.20 | | 市价(元) | 7.14 | | 市值(百万元) | 103,117.31 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 103,117.31 | 1、《生活圈媒体龙头，碰一下+出海 支撑第二增长曲线》2025-12-30 分众传媒（002027.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2026 年 01 月 28 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：康雅雯 | | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 11,904 | 12 ...

回收现金聚焦梯媒主业，看好长期业绩韧性 广告营销 执业证书编号：S0740515080001 报告摘要 股价与行业-市场走势对比 联营公司数禾展业受限，公司计提资产减值，退出项目。2025 年 10 月 1 日起，国家 金融监督管理总局加强对互联网主带业务的资质审核、合作模式和风险分担机制等核 心环节的监管要求，对公司持股 54.97%（无控制权）的联营公司上海数禾信息科技 的核心经营业务产生不利影响。公司决定退出该项目。 Email：kangyw@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 14,442.20 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 14,442.20 | | 市价(元) | 7.14 | | 市值(百万元) | 103,117.31 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 103,117.31 | 1、《生活圈媒体龙头，碰一下+出海 支撑第二增长曲线》2025-12-30 分众传媒（002027.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2026 年 01 月 28 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the focus of fund managers on semiconductor equipment and technology sectors, highlighting the performance of key fund managers and their investment strategies in these areas [4][20]. Fund Manager Performance - Fund managers Xie Zhiyu and Qiao Qian have significant management scales of 38.6 billion and 24 billion respectively, with annualized returns of 18% and 13.52% since their tenure began [4]. - Xie Zhiyu's fund, Xingquan Helun Mixed A, achieved a return of 35.7% in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 18 percentage points [4][5]. - Qiao Qian's fund, Xingquan Business Model Mixed A, recorded a return of 38.05% in 2025, with a net value growth exceeding 10% in early 2026 [5][6]. Investment Focus - Both fund managers are concentrating on technology sectors, particularly overseas computing power and semiconductor equipment [8][9]. - Xie Zhiyu maintains a high equity position, with 92.5% of the fund's net value in stocks by the end of the fourth quarter [11]. - Qiao Qian's fund also operates with a high equity position of 94.4% at the end of the fourth quarter [16]. Portfolio Adjustments - Xie Zhiyu's fund saw significant changes in its top holdings, with the introduction of storage testing and module leader Baiwei Storage, which is expected to see a net profit growth of 427%-520% in 2025 [12]. - New entries in the top ten holdings for Xie Zhiyu include semiconductor equipment stocks Tuo Jing Technology and Huahai Qingke, while North China Innovation, Lens Technology, and Focus Media exited the list [13]. - Qiao Qian's fund also adjusted its top holdings significantly, with six new entries, including Baiwei Storage and Huahai Qingke, while North China Innovation and Lens Technology were removed [17]. Overall Market Outlook - The two fund managers agree on the positive outlook for technology sectors, particularly semiconductor equipment, storage, and overseas computing power [20].

Group 1: Financial Information Services - The market is recovering, and AI empowerment is driving the continuous release of value in financial information services, with significant profit growth expected for Tonghuashun, projecting a net profit of 2.735 to 3.282 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 80% [3][4] - The increase in profitability is attributed to the company's investment in AI technologies, enhancing product competitiveness and user experience, alongside a rise in demand for financial information services as investor confidence improves [3][4] Group 2: Advertising and Marketing - Focus on the exit from Shuhua, with a significant impairment of 2.153 billion yuan recorded, leading to a net profit reduction of 2.529 billion yuan for 2025, while the company anticipates a net profit increase of 565 million yuan in Q1 2026 [7][10] - The company maintains a high dividend policy, committing to a minimum annual dividend of 80% of net profit, with a projected dividend yield of 4.2% based on current stock prices [11] Group 3: Banking Sector - Hangzhou Bank expects a revenue growth of 1.09% and a net profit growth of 12.05% for 2025, with a significant reduction in overdue loans and an increase in non-interest income [15][17] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with overdue loans significantly reduced, indicating improved asset quality [17][19] - China Merchants Bank anticipates a slight revenue growth of 0.01% and a net profit growth of 1.21% for 2025, with a stable deposit growth rate and a steady non-performing loan ratio [20][22] Group 4: Independent Medical Laboratory Industry - Aidi Kang Holdings is a pioneer in the independent medical laboratory (ICL) industry in China, providing standardized third-party testing services through a nationwide network of 34 self-operated laboratories [24][25] - The company has announced the acquisition of a global CRO focused on oncology and immuno-oncology for 204 million USD, enhancing its service capabilities in core disease areas [24][25] Group 5: Aviation Industry - The aviation industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, with ticket prices stabilizing after a decline, indicating potential for revenue growth for airlines [27][29] - Domestic travel demand is gradually recovering, with business travel increasing and international travel showing strong growth, suggesting a positive outlook for airline performance [31][32]