分析师：乔琪 登记编码：S0730520090001 qiaoqi@ccnew.com 021-50586985 传媒 三季度业绩增长显著，基金配置比例再次 提升 ——传媒行业分析报告 证券研究报告-行业分析报告 强于大市(维持) 传媒相对沪深 300 指数表现 相关报告 《传媒行业月报：国庆档票房回落，AI 视频 模型再迎突破》 2025-10-24 《传媒行业月报：业绩优异+政策利好+AI 驱 动，持续看好游戏板块表现》 2025-09-29 《传媒行业分析报告：传媒板块 2025H1 业绩 综述：业绩增长显著，子板块分化明显》 2025-09-10 联系人：李智 投资要点： 从基金重仓持股变化情况来看，2025Q3 公募基金对传媒板块有明 显的加配，持仓规模以及配置比例都达到近 5 年新高。从加仓情况 来看，具有业绩增长优势、景气度高的公司和板块更受关注。 建议关注：1）目前产业景气度较高的游戏产业、IP 衍生品产业；2） 技术持续迭代、模型能力提升，应用空间广阔的 AI 应用+内容产业； 3）市场需求刚性、盈利质量好、估值低、股息率高，具有防御性 价值的国有教育出版公司；4）受益于经济预期好转带来广告 ...

证券之星消息，11月7日广告营销板块较上一交易日下跌0.96%，福石控股领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3997.56，下跌0.25%。深证成指报收于13404.06，下跌0.36%。广告营销板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600986 | 浙文互联 | 9.11 | 1.56% | 62.22万 | | 5.63亿 | | 300612 | 宣亚国际 | 14.60 | 0.48% | 4.64万 | | 6731.40万 | | 301171 | 易点天下 | 31.32 | -0.10% | 33.65万 | | 10.36亿 | | 600358 | ST联合 | 5.81 | -0.17% | 6.41万 | | 3729.90万 | | 002878 | 元隆雅图 | 18.40 | -0.27% | 7.41万 | | 1.37亿 | | 603729 | 龙韵股份 | 17.84 | -0.28% | 1.75万 | | 3112. ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the gaming sector, highlighting its strong performance compared to other sub-industries within the media sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The A-share media sector reported an 8.2% year-on-year revenue growth and a 59.8% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2025, with significant differentiation among sub-industries [3][4]. - The gaming industry showed remarkable growth, with a 28.6% year-on-year revenue increase, marking six consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue growth and achieving a profit margin of 19.0%, the highest quarterly level since 2022 [3][4]. - The external environment for gaming continues to improve, with an increase in the average monthly number of domestic game approvals and relaxed third-party payment policies from platforms like Google and Apple, which are expected to enhance channel cost efficiency [3][6][10]. - The advertising sector, particularly focusing on Focus Media, has seen substantial growth in internet advertising spending, leading to improved profit margins and a return to historical highs in gross margins [3][4]. - The publishing sector has shown mixed results, with some state-owned publishing groups experiencing significant profit growth while others face challenges due to changes in educational material subscription methods [3][4]. Summary by Sections Gaming Sector - The gaming sector's revenue in Q3 2025 grew by 28.6% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 19.0%, the best performance since 2022 [3][4]. - Domestic PC game sales increased by 20% year-on-year, driven by titles like "Dream" and "Delta" [11]. - Key companies to watch include ST Huatuo, Giant Network, and Jiubite, which have shown significant growth [3][4][19]. Advertising Sector - Focus Media has optimized its cost structure, leading to a gross margin that has reached historical highs [3][4]. - Future observations will focus on the elasticity of internet advertising spending and the impact of new partnerships and acquisitions [3][4]. Publishing Sector - The performance of state-owned publishing groups varies, with some recovering from previous declines while others continue to face challenges [3][4]. - The overall trend indicates a need for adaptation to changing market conditions and consumer demands [3][4]. Long Video Sector - Mango TV is at a critical juncture, with expectations for operational improvements as policy support strengthens [3][4]. - The focus will be on innovative IP operations and product cycles in the coming years [3][4].

Core Insights - The total trading volume of Focus Media on November 5 was 5.694 million shares, with a total transaction value of 43.616 million yuan, at a price of 7.66 yuan per share [2] - Institutional investors participated in two of the transactions, with a net purchase amount of 21.7544 million yuan [2] - Over the past three months, the stock has seen a total of nine block trades, amounting to 108 million yuan [2] Trading Performance - The closing price of Focus Media on November 5 was 7.66 yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.42%, with a turnover rate of 0.76% and a total trading volume of 842 million yuan [2] - The stock experienced a net outflow of 12.3147 million yuan in major funds for the day, but has seen a cumulative increase of 0.52% over the past five days, with a total net inflow of 158 million yuan [2] Financing and Ratings - The latest margin financing balance for the stock is 1.26 billion yuan, with an increase of 81.7303 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth of 6.94% [3] - Ten institutions provided ratings for the stock in the past five days, with the highest target price set at 10.00 yuan by China International Capital Corporation on October 30 [3] Company Background - Focus Media was established on August 26, 1997, with a registered capital of approximately 1.444 billion yuan [3]

Core Insights - The Social Security Fund has disclosed its stock holdings as of the end of Q3, appearing in the top ten shareholders of 616 companies, with new investments in 188 companies and increased holdings in 156 companies [1][2] Group 1: Stock Holdings Overview - The total number of shares held by the Social Security Fund is 10.746 billion, with a total market value of 210.525 billion yuan [1] - The number of companies where the Social Security Fund is a top shareholder includes 5 funds in Shantui Machinery, holding a total of 85.159 million shares, accounting for 6.48% of the circulating shares [1][2] Group 2: Top Holdings by Proportion - The highest proportion of shares held by the Social Security Fund is in Andar Intelligent, with a holding ratio of 10.57%, followed by Norson with 8.16% [2] - A total of 16 companies have over 100 million shares held by the Social Security Fund, with the largest being Focus Media at 333 million shares [2] Group 3: Performance of Holdings - The average decline of stocks held by the Social Security Fund since October is 0.66%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [3] - The best-performing stock is Zhenhua Co., with a cumulative increase of 51.10%, while Guomai Culture has seen the largest decline at 41.57% [3] Group 4: Sector Distribution - The majority of stocks held by the Social Security Fund are concentrated in the machinery equipment, electronics, and pharmaceutical industries, with 60, 56, and 55 companies respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The media sector achieved a total revenue of 127.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.1 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 40% year-on-year [4][16] - The gaming sector outperformed expectations, with a net profit growth of 76% year-on-year, driven by successful new game launches [4][20] - The marketing sector saw a revenue increase of 9% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in the macroeconomic environment and improved advertising spending [4][66] - The film and television industry turned profitable, with a net profit of 0.9 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in the movie market [4][66] - Digital media revenue grew by 8%, although net profit margins declined [4][66] - The publishing sector faced revenue pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 5% [4][66] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The media industry reported a total revenue of 127.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 7% and a net profit of 10.1 billion yuan, up 40% year-on-year [4][13][16] Gaming Sector - The domestic gaming market's actual sales revenue was 880.3 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year but up 7.0% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for A-share gaming companies reached 55.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 76% year-on-year increase [4][20][27] - Major titles like "Endless Winter" and "Kingshot" contributed significantly to revenue growth [4][20] Marketing Sector - The marketing industry generated 45.3 billion yuan in revenue, a 9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.63 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year [4][66][72] - The sector benefited from AI technology enhancing advertising efficiency and a recovery in advertising spending from major brands [4][66] Film and Television Sector - The film and television industry reported a revenue of 8.61 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, but achieved a net profit of 0.9 billion yuan, indicating a turnaround [4][66] Digital Media Sector - Digital media revenue increased by 8% to 6.5 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 28% to 0.32 billion yuan, with a net profit margin decline [4][66] Publishing Sector - The publishing sector's revenue decreased by 5% to 29.84 billion yuan, while net profit grew by 13% to 2.47 billion yuan, primarily due to tax policy impacts [4][66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The company achieved a gross margin of 70.40% in the first three quarters of 2025, marking the highest level since 2018, with a year-on-year increase of 4.18 percentage points. The gross margin for Q3 alone reached 74.10%, the highest since Q4 2017, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.91 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.67 percentage points [9][6]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 96.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.73%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 42.40 billion yuan, up 6.87% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue was 34.94 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.08% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.37% [6][9]. - The company has a dividend payout ratio exceeding 50%, with a total cash dividend of 21.66 billion yuan distributed in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit margin of 44.00% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 1.85 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, R&D expense ratio, and financial expense ratio were 18.95%, 4.29%, 0.43%, and -0.12%, respectively, showing a slight overall increase of 0.77 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [9][6]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.40 yuan, 0.44 yuan, and 0.48 yuan, respectively. Based on the closing price on July 3, the corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 19.59, 17.57, and 16.37 [9][11]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in offline brand advertising, with advantages in location distribution, advertising reach, and conversion effectiveness. The collaboration with Alipay for interactive advertising scenarios is expected to enhance performance and client acquisition [9][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [2][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong growth in net profit, with a non-GAAP net profit increase of 14.64% year-on-year for Q3 2025, reflecting robust core business performance [3][4]. - The gross margin reached 74.1%, nearing the historical high of 74.98% recorded in Q3 2017, attributed to improved negotiation power in rental agreements and optimization of certain locations [4]. - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.31 billion yuan, up 14.26% year-on-year, supporting stable operations and shareholder returns [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.607 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.73%, and a net profit of 4.240 billion yuan, up 6.87% [3]. - The Q3 2025 revenue was 3.494 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.08% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 1.576 billion yuan, increasing by 6.85% [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.50 yuan per share, totaling 722 million yuan, as part of its commitment to return value to shareholders [4]. Earnings Forecast - The revenue projections for 2025-2027 are maintained at 12.915 billion yuan, 13.595 billion yuan, and 14.336 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 5.530 billion yuan, 6.057 billion yuan, and 6.598 billion yuan [4][6]. - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 20.3, 18.5, and 17.0 for the years 2025-2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the media sector [4][36][40] Core Views - The media sector has shown a slight increase of 0.48% this week, underperforming both the CSI 300 index (0.75%) and the ChiNext index (4.09%) [11][12] - The game "Escape from Duckkov" has surpassed 2 million sales as of October 28, 2025, indicating strong market interest [15][36] - OpenAI is preparing for an IPO expected in the second half of 2026, with a potential valuation reaching 12 digits [16][36] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector's performance this week ranked 18th among all sectors, with notable gainers including BlueFocus, Yue Media, and Fushi Holdings, while losers included Giant Network and ST Huatuo [11][12][13] Key Data Tracking - The box office for the week (October 27 - November 2) reached 213 million yuan, with the top three films being "Life of Langlang" (37 million yuan, 17.5% share), "Improv Murder" (35 million yuan, 16.1% share), and "Eagle Warrior: Last Strike" (29 million yuan, 13.6% share) [17][19] - In the gaming sector, the top three mobile games in September 2025 were "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot" by Didi Interactive, and "Gossip Harbor: Merge & Story" by Lemon Microfun [24][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook on the gaming sector, particularly focusing on new product cycles and IP trends, recommending stocks such as Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Jibite [3][36] - It also highlights the potential for growth in AI applications across various sectors, including animation, advertising, and education [3][36] Company Earnings Forecasts - Key companies such as Kaiying Network, Fenjun Media, and Mango Super Media are rated as "Outperform the Market," with projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E being 1.01, 0.39, and 0.76 respectively [4][38]

Core Insights - The advertising and marketing sector saw a slight increase of 0.22% on November 4, with Fushi Holdings leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3960.19, down 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13175.22, down 1.71% [1] Stock Performance - Fushi Holdings (300071) closed at 6.15, up 6.77% with a trading volume of 2.9468 million shares and a transaction value of 1.694 billion [1] - BlueFocus Communication Group (300058) closed at 7.86, up 3.69% with a trading volume of 6.4236 million shares and a transaction value of 4.887 billion [1] - Other notable stocks include Xinhua Du (002264) at 7.11 (+1.28%), Yilun Media (603598) at 17.26 (+1.05%), and Simay Media (002712) at 5.79 (+1.05%) [1] Capital Flow - The advertising and marketing sector experienced a net outflow of 324 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 399 million [2] - The capital flow data indicates that BlueFocus Communication Group had a net inflow of 264 million from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 105 million from speculative funds [3] - Other companies like Fushi Holdings and Yilun Media also showed varied capital flows, with Fushi Holdings experiencing a net outflow of 613.67 million from institutional investors [3]