国君交运周观察：布局中期趋势，增持航空油运

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the aviation and oil transportation sectors [1][2]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see a record high in passenger flow during the National Day holiday, with resilient demand and a gradual recovery in supply and demand dynamics. The report anticipates that the profitability of airlines will improve as supply and demand recover [2][3]. - In the oil transportation sector, the report suggests a cautious approach to seasonal speculation, emphasizing the potential for a super bull market in oil transportation due to expected increases in crude oil production [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aviation Sector - The report highlights that the pre-sale of tickets for the National Day holiday is accelerating, with an increase in ticket inquiries. The price drop during the holiday period is narrowing, and passenger flow is expected to reach a historical high for the same period [2][3]. - The recovery of the aviation supply and demand is projected to continue into 2023-2024, with fleet turnover gradually improving and passenger load factors expected to return to normal levels by 2024. The report suggests that the profitability of airlines will rise as supply and demand stabilize [3]. - Recommendations include maintaining "Overweight" ratings for China National Aviation, Spring Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and others [3][12]. Oil Transportation Sector - The report indicates that trade rhythms will continue to dominate short-term freight rates, with recent increases in freight rates being controlled to manage trade dynamics. The TCE for VLCC from the Middle East to China has decreased from nearly $40,000 to $32,000 [3][11]. - The report notes that the TCE for refined oil transportation has stabilized at $17,000, with expectations for strong performance during the peak season despite uncertainties [3][11]. - The report emphasizes that the increase in crude oil production will benefit oil transportation demand, suggesting a strategic focus on the oil transportation super bull market [3][12].