房地产行业专题报告：招商公寓深圳蛇口REITS，价值分析报告-保障租赁房投资潜力显现

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or the specific REITs discussed [1][2][3] Core Views - The report highlights the potential of the Shenzhen rental housing market, particularly in the Nanshan District, where demand for affordable rental housing is expected to grow significantly due to population growth and economic development [1][2][20][25] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the underlying assets of the proposed REITs, with high occupancy rates and stable cash flows, making them attractive for investors [2][45][48] - The report suggests that the proposed REITs, particularly the CMB-Shekou Affordable Rental Housing REIT, have strong potential for price appreciation post-listing, supported by their robust operational performance and favorable market conditions [66] Fund Overview - The fund is structured as a public REIT, with the underlying assets being two affordable rental housing projects in Shenzhen's Nanshan District, namely the Taiziwan and Linxia projects [1][16][17] - The fund will distribute at least 90% of its annual distributable income to investors in the form of cash dividends [1][17] - The fund's initial assets include 927 rental housing units and 15 commercial units, with a total construction area of 65,253.27 square meters [35][36] Market Demand and Potential - Shenzhen's rental housing market is characterized by a low homeownership rate (23%) and a high proportion of renters (77%), with the population expected to grow to 18.6 million by 2025, driving demand for affordable rental housing [1][25] - The Nanshan District, where the projects are located, is a hub for high-quality tenants, including professionals from industries such as technology, finance, and logistics, further boosting demand [1][28] - The supply of public rental housing in Nanshan is insufficient to meet the demand, leading to high occupancy rates for new projects [2][28] Asset Performance - The Taiziwan and Linxia projects have achieved high occupancy rates, with 94.66% and 97.24% respectively as of the first half of 2024 [2][45] - The projects have demonstrated stable cash flows, with high collection rates and minimal overdue payments from tenants [2][45] - The projects' rental income has shown steady growth, with Taiziwan's rental income increasing from RMB 29.49 million in 2021 to RMB 33.49 million in 2023, and Linxia's rental income growing from RMB 41.62 million in 2021 to RMB 49.79 million in 2023 [48][49] Valuation and Cash Flow Projections - The total market value of the underlying assets is estimated at RMB 1.246 billion, with a market value per square meter of RMB 19,094.83 [2][53] - The fund is projected to generate RMB 38.39 million in revenue in the second half of 2024 and RMB 79.13 million in 2025, with a net cash flow distribution rate of 4.37% and 4.42% respectively [2][57] - The fund's cash flow projections are based on a 6% discount rate, reflecting the low-risk nature of the assets and the stable rental income they generate [53][57] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends the CMB-Shekou Affordable Rental Housing REIT as a potentially attractive investment, given its strong underlying assets, high occupancy rates, and stable cash flows [66] - The report suggests that the REIT's valuation is relatively low compared to its peers, with a potential price range of RMB 2.70 to RMB 2.90 post-listing, offering upside potential for investors [66] - The report highlights the REIT's strong cash distribution potential, with a projected annualized cash distribution rate of 4.12%, making it an attractive option for income-focused investors [66]